The Pyeongchang Olympics is North Korea's Winter Offensive

The Pyeongchang Olympics is North Korea's Winter Offensive

North Korean leadership believes that South Korea is the weakest link in the “maximum pressure” chain—and they plan to exploit it. 

Thus far, neither Seoul nor Washington have committed any serious unforced errors in the face of Pyongyang’s winter offensive. President Moon has indicated that he intends to go summiting in Pyongyang—with the qualification that “conditions” for such a meeting be “created.” On the U.S. side, Vice President Pence (who was criticized in the news and on social media for not clapping for the joint Korean team during his Winter Olympics visit) endorsed the Moon government’s idea of pursuing talks with the North. That, however, was the easy part. The tougher part comes now.

The United States and the ROK (and yes—also Japan) must carefully coordinate and prepare for what Pyongyang has already laid in store. The North has given far more consideration to what it wants to get out of this vaunted summit than have the ROK and her allies. It is not too much to suggest that the future prospects for the Kim family regime rest on the outcome of its winter offensive. This particular game is theirs to lose—and the Kim family regime has no intention of losing it.

Nicholas Eberstadt holds the Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), and is senior adviser to the National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR).

Image: Reuters

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