While Washington should assert freedom of navigation as it always has, it should shrink its security commitments. Japan long has been capable of defending itself and its region, and should be expected to do so in the future. The United States should narrow its treaty guarantee to ensuring Japan’s independence—which is not at stake—rather than ensuring Tokyo’s control over contested territories, which encouraged Japan to deny the existence of “an issue to be solved” with China. A similar approach should be taken with the Philippines, though Washington has been less explicit in detailing its present commitments.

The best outcome for Washington would be for events to take their natural course, that is, China’s neighbors rearm and coordinate to counter Beijing’s aggressiveness. The participation of both India and Japan makes a serious regional coalition possible. They will do more if they know that they must assert and protect their territorial claims.

Peaceful resolution is possible if the parties avoid making the issue a nationalistic zero sum game. Only mutually agreed solutions, not disputed legal rulings, can settle the region’s territorial disputes. Overall the parties should to “seek common ground while reserving differences,” as Wu Shicun of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies put it.

Washington should suggest creative solutions, including bilateral and multilateral forums, outside mediation, ad hoc international groups, shared sovereignty, joint development while deferring decisions over sovereignty, guaranteed navigation irrespective of sovereignty and codes of conduct to limit clashes. In the aftermath of the tribunal ruling Deputy Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin reiterated his government’s support for joint development: “be it cooperation in fishing or oil and gas resources, China can reach agreements with neighboring countries.”

Suspicion of China’s intentions is understandable, though it peacefully resolved seventeen of the twenty previous border disputes. Beijing may be less inclined to do so today, but the People’s Republic of China still has much at stake in the existing peaceful order. The United States and its friends should demonstrate that China’s interests will be respected by adapting to changed circumstances.

The tribunal decision, though nominally a victory for America’s allies, makes it even more important for the parties to defuse if not resolve the controversy. If Beijing feels a greater need to challenge while other states see less reason to yield, a crisis could soon be upon us. Yet China’s smaller antagonists, such as the Philippines, need faster economic development and peaceful relations more than formal sovereignty over disputed territory. If the only way nations like the Philippines can enforce their claims is by relying on America, then Washington will be the biggest loser.

The arbitration court ruling, though seemingly decisive, changes nothing for the United States. America’s interests remain modest, as should its involvement in the controversy. Washington does not need is another war, especially against an adversary with serious power.

Doug Bandow is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute. He also is a former Special Assistant to President Ronald Reagan and author of Foreign Follies: America’s New Global Empire.

Image: The People's Republic of China destroyer Harbin is framed between two U.S. Navy sailors. Wikimedia Commons/U.S. Navy