Yet there are optimistic signs. Administration officials claim the United States has more frank discussions these days with senior Chinese leaders than for many years, and with some good results. When the ships get too confrontational, for example, they claim they’ve sometimes been able to get Beijing to pull back rather than risk having an overeager gunboat captain start shooting. And Washington will use its influence to persuade Japanese prime minister Abe from sending officials to what he calls the Senkakus, in order to prevent a clash there while making clear Beijing understands the U.S. role.

But these are tactical matters. More important is whether or not Xi and his colleagues can be convinced to adopt broader strategies that promise long-term gains for everyone. And on this the jury is out. During recent months, then vice-president Xi and Vice President Joseph Biden spent much of two weeks in each other’s company, watching a Lakers game in Los Angeles, slurping noodles in a Beijing diner and—more to the point—discussing basic policies and attitudes of their governments. It’s hoped these unprecedented exchanges will help form the basis for better future relations, letting common interests trump the many contesting ones when the chips are down. But who knows?

Exactly what Xi thinks about China’s long term interests is still a mystery, as is his ability to shape whatever his Politburo colleagues decide should be national policy. A decade ago, the Chinese official in charge of negotiating entry into the World Trade Organization said he had to invent a term for “win-win solution” because the concept didn’t exist in the Chinese language. Whether it is shared by China’s new party leaders remains to be seen.

Robert Keatley is a former editor of The Asian Wall Street Journal and the South China Morning Post, both of Hong Kong.

Image: Wikimedia Commons/J. Patrick Fischer.