We have not seen a Turkish political upheaval for ten years. Today there are some shoots. Political change is hard to predict, especially given Erdogan’s dominance—and it is folly to bet against him. But by 2014, continuing turbulence at home and nearby may lead to the emergence of new parties and possibly even the decomposition of AKP. Meanwhile, Turkey remains an important, dynamic and endlessly surprising place.
Morton Abramowitz is a senior fellow at The Century Foundation and a member of The National Interest's advisory council.