Will Putin's ability to forge workable compromises between competing factions and interests continue? So much of Russia's revival has been linked to the successful deployment of the country's energy resources. But as Russia's market share for energy slips, with prices and markets possibly threatened in coming years by the shale oil and natural gas revolution, will his "half a loaf" strategy for satisfying different (and sometimes contradictory) constituencies be feasible? As Putin loses leverage, what happens to Russia?

Which of the competing identities within Putin is closest to his heart of hearts? If he has to choose between them, which will it be? As Russia and the larger world move through increasingly stormy waters in the years to come, trying to discern which Putin is at the helm of the Russian ship of state will be important for his interlocutors both in domestic and global affairs. Hill and Gaddy cannot provide us with an answer—but their work deserves merit for being able to frame the question.

Nikolas K. Gvosdev, a senior editor at The National Interest, is a professor of national-security studies at the U.S. Naval War College. The views expressed are entirely his own.

Image: kremlin.ru. CC BY 3.0.