As time goes by, it will become harder to retain Israel’s F-35 monopoly. This given the pressures that Lockheed Martin and the Gulf countries will probably bring to bear on the U.S. administration in the future. Even today, the UAE is signaling its dissatisfaction at the United States’ refusal to sell it the plane, and its recent outline agreement with Russia to build a next-generation fighter is probably intended to communicate its frustration. Israel needs to verify the United States’ commitment that it will remains the sole regional recipient of the F-35 well beyond the next decade.

Israel must find the necessary funding, following the signing of the MOU, to increase the number of F-35s it will purchase. This should be complemented by upgrading the radars on its existing F-15Is.

Israel should continue to invest in the development of new offset technologies that can provide it with unique advantages to address the ongoing loss of its traditional qualitative edge. It needs to engage and cooperate with the United States on this issue in the context of the Pentagon’s third offset strategy effort.

In addition, Israel needs to enhance its intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities concerning developments in the Arab world, including the operational integration of the new advanced aerial capabilities. This will help Israel increase the lead time for an operational counterforce buildup and readiness if hostile developments transpire in the Arab world. As we have seen, the threshold for the use of military power by the Sunni Arab countries has lowered significantly over the last five years.

Alongside military hedging, Israel needs to invest in increasing the costs for Arab Sunni states if they change their attitude toward Israel for the negative. Foremost, Israel must cement the United States’ commitment to using its leverage and influence to prevent any future belligerency by countries that possess advanced U.S.-supplied military capabilities. The continued strength of Israel’s special relationship with the United States, and the latter’s willingness to use its leverage with Arab Sunni states, are paramount.

Additionally, Israel needs to continue to develop its relations with the Arab Sunni countries in ways that would increase the costs if they were to negatively change their orientation towards Israel. In this context, the export of gas to Jordan and Egypt is of strategic consequence.

Shimon Arad is a retired colonel in the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). His last position (2011–16), was Head of the Strategic Planning Unit in the Political-Military and Policy Bureau of the Israeli Ministry of Defense. Previously, he served in numerous positions in the J2, J3 and J5, dealing with military, regional and international strategy issues.

Image: Israel receives its first two fifth-generation F-35 Joint Strike Fighters. Flickr/U.S. Embassy Tel Aviv