Brexit: We Asked 18 of the World's Leading Experts What Happens Next

September 13, 2018 Topic: Security Region: Europe Tags: BritainBrexitEuropean UnioneconomyParliament

Brexit: We Asked 18 of the World's Leading Experts What Happens Next

A National Interest Symposium.

Westminster and Brussels have just half a year left before they must agree on a deal for the UK to leave the EU. Resignations of Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and chief negotiator David Davis in July signaled the difficulty of getting a deal done. The People’s Vote campaign is calling for a second referendum, while strong ‘leavers’ are decrying even a ‘soft Brexit’ as a “crisis of democracy.” The possibility exists that the UK will depart with no deal.

With these developments in mind, the National Interest asked scholars and experts the following questions:

Where do Britain and the EU go from here on Brexit? Can and should Britain stay in the EU (from a legal, political, public opinion, or another standpoint) or is separation best? Should Britons get another vote on Brexit or on the final deal? What will Britain’s future relationship with the EU look like, and what kind of an effect will it have on Britain’s economy?

We present eighteen responses in alphabetical order. (The views of authors expressed are their own and not necessarily those of their institution.) Click on the links below to go to each expert’s response.

Kenneth Armstrong is a professor of European law at the University of Cambridge and author of Brexit Time—Leaving the EU: Why, How and When?

 

The United Kingdom only has seven months of its EU membership remaining. It now has to agree on the terms of its withdrawal with the EU and to put in place a framework that will guide negotiations on the UK’s future relationship with the EU once the UK has finally left on March 29, 2019.

Finalizing the terms of the UK’s departure is a task not without its challenges. Although the foundation for a deal on some key issues—settlement of the UK’s financial liabilities and the basis for the protection of citizens’ rights post-membership—has been in place since the end of 2017, the adage that “nothing is agreed till everything is agreed” means that failure to reach a consensus on other issues could lead to a disorderly exit for the UK.

Foremost among the remaining problems to be solved is the issue of the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The UK government’s insistence that Brexit means leaving the EU single market and customs union risks the emergence of frontier controls between the UK and Ireland along the border between the two jurisdictions on the island of Ireland. Any solution needs to overcome a potential “trilemma” of competing interests—those of the UK, the EU, and the Irish government—while also having to anticipate what a future UK-EU economic arrangement might require.

The domestic political debate about what sort of future relationship the UK should seek with the EU, nonetheless, exposes an ongoing lack of clarity about the UK’s stance. It was only this summer that Prime Minister May finally summoned her cabinet to agree to a collective position to be published in a White Paper. It immediately prompted the resignation of her Brexit Secretary of State and her Foreign Secretary. While making some version of this plan work is now key to how negotiations with the EU will proceed, it is proving difficult for the PM to sell even to her own colleagues.

Regardless of whether a consensus is achieved by negotiators, there is a growing sense that the people should also have their say. The “People’s Vote” campaign is pushing for a referendum on the text of a withdrawal agreement. But it is not clear that there is either time to hold a referendum or time to manage the consequences of a popular rejection of any deal. Time shapes Brexit. And time is short.

Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook is the executive director of the Future of Diplomacy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School.

We are headed for a precarious “no deal” cliff following Brussels’s de facto rejection of the latest UK “soft Brexit” plan, in which the UK flatly ignored the indivisibility of the EU’s sacred “four freedoms”—the free movement of goods, capital, services and labor.

Fall deadlines loom large. Time to March 2019 is ticking down. Yet, amidst all looming questions, separation remains the only game in town. Prime Minister Theresa May is feeling squeezed by her own party and has uncertain support in parliament, where she would need the approval of a compromise Brexit deal, while the EU’s chief negotiator seems fully prepared to watch her flounder.

Yet “no deal” is the most dangerous of outcome for both sides. It will rip a deep hole in the EU’s budget. It would bring EU-UK security cooperation to a halt. Borders would harden. It would halt financial industry business-as-usual in London’s City. Tariffs could cripple the UK’s big industries for decades to come. And all that to say nothing of the direct impact on citizens’ rights and movement of people on both sides.