In a word, given the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean’s importance to its steady rise to global-power status, China is least likely to back away from its territorial claims in the South China Sea. It follows, therefore, that China’s policy toward its southern neighbors is an aggressive one and it will remain so in the foreseeable future.

North Korea’s nuclear program, South Korea’s THAAD deployment, Taiwan’s independence movement, Japan’s assertiveness in the East China Sea and the four maritime neighbors’ claim to the South China Sea are among China’s, and perhaps even the world’s, tensest geopolitical situations. Now that Donald Trump has been elected to the U.S. presidency, no one knows whether these situations will change for better or worse, judging from remarks the president-elect made during his campaign that he would reverse President Obama’s rebalancing policy, meaning pulling back from Asia and giving freedom of navigation back to China.

Liu Xuejun and Liu Jun are both associate professors at the Institute of International Studies of Yunnan University based in Kunming, Yunnan, the People’s Republic of China.

Image: Opening ceremony of the Russia-China Naval Interaction 2014 joint exercises. Kremlin.ru