Coronavirus Fallout Will Test the China-Pakistan Relationship More than Ever Before

May 9, 2020 Topic: Security Region: Eurasia Tags: PakistanChinaEconomyWeaponsMissiles

Coronavirus Fallout Will Test the China-Pakistan Relationship More than Ever Before

For much of the past generation, Pakistan was a frontline state in the U.S.-led war on terror, losing tens of thousands of its own people in the process. But that was then. Now, the war-torn country is preparing to emerge as a frontline state in the U.S.-China “cold war.”

Pakistan and the Sino-American Cold War 

China and Pakistan are due for a tough discussion on debt repayment, power sector reform, and the future of CPEC. Pakistanis see their ties with China as a “special relationship.” But they are due for a disappointment. 

Beijing clearly does not see CPEC as an act of charity. Chinese state-owned companies have proven to be tough negotiators, even with an “all-weather friend” like Pakistan. And Beijing has backed its firms, in part because the Belt and Road has so far been a stimulus for its “white elephant” state-owned enterprises. 

If China does indeed budge, then will it ask for concessions from Pakistan in return? As U.S.-China tensions escalate, the implications of this question are far broader than they would have been months ago.

Previously, China had counseled Pakistan to maintain good ties with the United States. But the international system is now at an inflection point. It could be argued that a brief multipolar era has come to an end and a bipolar system has reemerged.  

In the information domain, China has become more assertive, disseminating coronavirus conspiracy theories, challenging notions of American exceptionalism, and offering its own. The Chinese military is also more aggressive in the South China Sea in recent weeks. Meanwhile, both U.S. presidential candidates compete on toughness toward China. The decoupling of both powers is likely to accelerate across multiple domains.  

Pakistan has been a net beneficiary of multipolarity. The 2011 bin Laden raid propelled it to diversify ties, strengthen its relations with China and begin a partnership with Russia. In the multipolar era, Pakistan had maneuverability. It could pivot. But in a bipolar era, whether it is in the economic, security, or technological spaces, it may be forced to choose.  

The elite discourse in Pakistan, however, is ill-equipped to address the challenge. Beijing has pulled a page out of its playbook. It knows that money talks. China has its own equivalents of the International Visitor Leadership Program and Fulbright scholarship. It funds Pakistani think tanks and pays for foreign junkets for Pakistani journalists. The Pakistani military has a growing technical relationship with its Chinese counterparts. The partnership in logistics and telecommunications is also strengthening. China is also absolutely essential in Pakistan’s efforts to counter India’s increasingly aggressive Hindu nationalist government. 

Due to rent and realpolitik, Pakistan’s elite tends not to deviate too far from official talking points when it comes to CPEC. Some Pakistanis have become evangelists for “Xi Jinping Thought” and even serve as apologists for China’s cultural genocide on Uighur Muslims, over a million of whom have been put into concentration camps. And many more Pakistanis believe in Chinese exceptionalism and see their country as betting on the right horse in the next cold war. 

For much of the past generation, Pakistan was a frontline state in the U.S.-led war on terror, losing tens of thousands of its own people. It could soon emerge as a frontline state in the U.S.-China Cold War. A storm may be on its way, but Pakistan’s elite has its heads in the sand.  

Arif Rafiq (@arifcrafiq) is president of Vizier Consulting, LLC, a political risk advisory company focused on the Middle East and South Asia.

Image: Reuters