The unexpected wild card will come from none other than South Korea. Long a victim of the North’s wrath, the United States has had to intervene to avoid escalating the situation. This occurred most recently in 2010, in the wake of the Yeonpyeong Island shelling; then-Secretary of Defense Robert Gates successfully discouraged the South Korean military from carrying out a major retaliation against North Korea. It is likely this incident, along with others, have not been forgotten by the ROK leadership. Given the more conciliatory tone the administration of President Moon Jae-in is hoping to strike, Seoul will demand a say in whether the United States ought to act to draw even with the North. The United States may “wear the pants” in its relationship with the ROK, but it is the South that will, in the long run, pay the heaviest price for violence on the peninsula. The strength of the U.S.-ROK relationship will be put to the test; what conventional wisdom suggests will be unifying moment may, in fact, unexpectedly strain the alliance.

Any attack on U.S. forces by North Korea will be a roll of the dice that could lead to an eruption of tensions in the region costing countless lives. Worse, it could constitute the opening salvos of a war from which there is no way out, except to see it through to its unfortunate end. While the United States and its allies must be ready to wage war against the North, if necessary, it must place greater emphasis on avoiding situations that could inadvertently lead to catastrophe. With a nuclear-armed North Korea, there is no margin for error.

Edward Chang is a freelance writer on defense, military and foreign-policy issues. His writing has appeared in the National Interest and War Is Boring.

Image: Reuters

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