President Trump’s decision to decertify Iranian compliance with the JCPOA will yield assured costs for uncertain benefits. Desiring a more stringent deal to deter Iran’s history of clandestine nuclear efforts and policies—which are anathema to U.S. interests—is a prudent endeavor, but this should be achieved from within the existing framework rather than from without. Notwithstanding the Trump administration, the international community will remain committed to the JCPOA as long as the IAEA continues to certify Iran’s compliance. Until these hard facts change, U.S. policies meant to dismantle the deal will be seen parochial and partisan. Those policies will undermine American credibility, reliability and influence rather than serve the country’s national-security interests.

Adam Lammon is a graduate student at George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs and the Middle East, Climate, and Security Intern at the Center for the National Interest.

Geoffrey Kemp is senior director for regional security at the Center for the National Interest. He served in the White House as Special Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs in the first Reagan Administration

This article was originally prepared as a background paper for a Nuclear Security Working Group dinner on September 20, 2017.

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