Unsurprisingly, Erdogan was upset with these developments and stated that Turkey would refuse to support Sweden’s application to join NATO as long as Sweden allowed Quran burning and pro-Kurdish protests to continue. In response, the Swedish government stated that it did not support the protests, but that they cannot ban the pro-Kurdish protests nor Quran burning because such actions would go against Swedish law which protects them as free speech. Regardless, though, this was not enough for Erdogan, with Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu accusing Sweden of being complicit of a “hate and racist crime.” There is still hope that Turkey might become more conciliatory towards Sweden after the elections, and the Swedish government is introducing a new anti-terrorism law which it hopes will persuade Turkey to change its mind.

Despite the strained relationship between the two countries, Erdogan’s primary concern is winning the election, and antagonizing Sweden is just one of the tactics that he is employing to shore up support. Once the elections have passed, it is quite possible that new negotiations will pave the way forward for Sweden to join NATO and even help to reset the relationship between the two countries.

Joe Boueiz is an independent analyst in international relations and the politics of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. He is a graduate of the Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs and the American University of Beirut (AUB), and a former lecturer of international relations at the Modern University of Business and Science (MUBS) in Beirut, Lebanon.

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