Escalatory Dangers Could Push North Korea Into a War

November 19, 2017 Topic: Security Region: Asia Tags: North KoreaKim Jong-unWarMilitaryWeapons

Escalatory Dangers Could Push North Korea Into a War

The more urgent goal is to create a stable, peaceful, predictable atmosphere between Pyongyang and Seoul.

Conceding Geopolitical Realities and Pursuing a Different Security Bargain

The Washington, DC consensus on security must concede the hard and complex realities of Northeast Asian geopolitics by giving up the global, liberal-institutionalist aspects of nonproliferation that always lead to the same failed tools: sanctions that de facto destabilize and target the regime as a legitimate sovereign entity, and diplomatic attempts focused on denuclearization. Instead, it is urgent that officials start targeting a middle diplomatic and military ground: the seeking of a stable deterrent equilibrium on the peninsula itself. Notably, we believe the correct focus to be growth of the normalization of nonprovocation in general between the two Korean states (and between those states and their neighbors). This means neither side is currently intent on unhinging, subverting or seriously undermining the defensive posture of the other on an ongoing basis. Also, neither side is engaged in the practice of targeting its neighbor’s important allies.

This said, a new status quo would have to include a definitive end to North Korean medium-plus-range missile launches that seek to detach the United States and particularly bases on Japanese soil from defense of South Korea. In particular, the United States and its allies should pursue a zero-tolerance norm or “taboo” on both anti-South armed provocations and any missile tests beyond the category of “short-range.” This would mean, quite literally, a Northern promise never again to insert commando, paramilitary, or conventional forces across boundary lines, or to enact deadly surprise strikes against Southern naval and land-based military targets in sensitive contested territorial zones. It would also mean a clear promise that no more medium- or intermediate-range missiles fly towards or over Japan, while all ICBM testing of any kind would also summarily end. The United States (with the support of its allies) would threaten U.S. economic retaliation—possibly even military retaliation—if the North cheats in any way.

However, as with all geopolitical bargains, this would require reassurances in kind. In return, the United States would reciprocally promise and enact an end to close-in U.S. strategic bomber and naval patrols, which the North obviously views as regime decapitation threats. The United States would also end calls for regime change (even implicit and informal asides to this effect). Finally, the United States, China and the global community would end calls for the harshest of sanctions if the North shows real, verifiable restraint in both subconventional provocations and medium-to-long range missile tests. Finally, and not least, China, Russia and the United States would have to agree to “delink” their own latent geopolitical rivalries and distrust from the already-fraught inter-Korean dispute, and instead cooperatively focusing on a new strategic norm of “Peninsular autonomy and stability.”

Dr. Michael Kraig is associate professor of international security at Air Command and Staff College, Alabama. He earned his Ph.D. in political science from the University at Buffalo, New York, with a major in international security studies. Dr. Kraig served in several senior capacities with the Stanley Foundation, a non-profit, non-partisan NGO devoted to advocating security policy options for the United States and its competitors that would moderate the extremes of their geopolitical disagreements. He wrote the book Shaping U.S. Military Forces for the Asia Pacific: Lessons from Conflict Management in Past Great Power Eras and has written numerous articles on nuclear deterrence in the developing world between regional rivals and the relation of military theory to US conventional force posture in East Asia. His articles have appeared in the Journal of Peace Research, India Review, Security Studies and Strategic Studies Quarterly.

All arguments are those of the author and do not reflect the policy of Air University, the United States Air Force, the Department of Defense, or the government of the United States.

Image: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un watches a rocket firing drill by anti-aircraft units of the Korean People's Army (KPA) in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang November 3, 2015. REUTERS/KCNA

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