Follow Beijing's Lead on Defusing the Volatile North Korea Crisis
Washington now may confront the last possible window of opportunity to arrest the further escalation of the Korean crisis.
Getting beyond a freeze to actual disarmament will be harder, of course, and may well be impossible at this late date, but we should try anyhow. One could imagine all manner of inducements from sanctions relief measures to aid programs to diplomatic relations to NBA all-star games. President Moon has shown the way by raising cooperative steps few had been considering, such as a North Korean role in the upcoming Olympic Games scheduled for February 2018. Following Moon’s lead and getting creative, one might suggest that nations that have heretofore played a background role become much more involved in developing carrots. Japan, for example, is seemingly already under grave threat from North Korean missiles. Why shouldn’t Tokyo develop a package of investment incentives that offers to overhaul North Korea’s backward economy? Likewise, I have suggested previously that the Russian Far East would benefit significantly from decreased tensions on the Korean Peninsula. How about Moscow gets involved in some constructive shuttle diplomacy on the Korean Peninsula to help convince the West that Russia is actually not a “bad actor” and can deliver some public goods for global security and prosperity? A related point to study might be how Russian and Chinese conventional arms transfers (e.g. fighter interceptors, tanks, frigates, etc.) could enhance North Korean security, obviating the need for nuclear weaponry and simultaneously playing to Kim Jong-un’s fondness for a dazzling military parade.
A final “parting shot” is that American strategists might spend just a moment to reflect on the fact that wave after wave of criticism heaped on the Iran nuclear deal, the infamous JCPOA, are only making a North Korea nuclear deal that much harder to achieve, since Pyongyang has no doubt watched that disheartening, politicized process with utmost attention. Global security, and the whole nonproliferation enterprise, demand a timely shift now to discussing carrots and negotiations rather than simply sticks. Following Beijing’s lead toward a “freeze” will be a wise first step toward a new approach that prioritizes stability and development over political and military grandstanding. This new approach also happens to be wholly consistent with putting “America First.”
Lyle J. Goldstein is an associate professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island. The opinions expressed in this analysis are his own and do not represent the official assessments of the U.S. Navy or any other agency of the U.S. government.
Image: North Korean leader Kim Jung Un guides the test fire of a tactical rocket in this undated photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang August 15, 2014. REUTERS/KCNA.