How to Demolish the North Korean Submarine Missile Threat

May 18, 2015 Topic: Security Region: Asia Tags: North KoreaMissilesDefense

How to Demolish the North Korean Submarine Missile Threat

Preemptive strikes and missile defense won't be enough to stop North Korea's new submarine-launched missiles.

As such, what is worrying may not simply be the adoption of a pre-emptive strike capability or hastening of missile defense development on the Korean Peninsula, but rather the need for South Korea and America’s response to reach the maritime domain. Because time is of the premium when dealing with the SLBM threat, the onus is not just on real-time detection and targeting, using ocean reconnaissance satellites or unmanned aerial vehicles, for example, but also rapid-response ASW prosecution capabilities. Extending Seoul’s envisaged “Kill Chain” to the maritime domain is one logical solution.

Suppose that the capabilities to detect and track the North Korean SSB in real-time are available, will existing conventional means be sufficient to neutralize the threat? Long-range maritime patrol aircraft and surface warships armed with ASW helicopters and long-range standoff ASW weapons such as the vertical-launch anti-submarine rocket are well-known types of assets for such a role. But will South Korea’s diesel-electric powered attack submarines suffice in such a role? Such boats are certainly underpowered, and thus limited in their hunter-killer role against such time-sensitive targets as a SSB or SSBN.

For now, as part of the American-South Korean alliance, the U.S. Navy’s SSNs will fill this undersea void. But what will the situation be like in future? Will Seoul eventually consider the need to introduce its own SSNs, and how will that influence Japan’s decision to do the same? While these are only potential scenarios, it does warrant the need for caution by paying greater attention to North Korea’s SLBM and SSB developments and the potential consequences they may entail for the region.

Koh Swee Lean Collin is associate research fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, a constituent unit of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies based in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.