Yet because of this, as Hal Brands and Michael Beckley warn, China may become even more recklessly aggressive. Russia’s aberrant war in Ukraine and subsequent setbacks, for example, have raised the bar higher for China’s eventual invasion of Taiwan. Even here, however, Beijing has strategically and politically miscalculated. Xi, fed reports that overestimate Chinese power and grandeur, has given himself (and China) a deadline to absorb Taiwan. By painting himself into a corner, Xi is damned if he does invade and damned if he does not.

Given this situation, the Quad must carefully exploit China’s weakening conditions in their favor. The good news is that this entails doing more of the same: advocating the rules-based international order as a system that benefits all the countries in the world. In doing so, sympathizers of the international status quo will increase, and the Quad members will be able to strengthen their engagement with these non-aligned middle players. The United States and Japan can also seek European moral and political support for their cause.

The War in Ukraine, nonetheless, shattered this rosy picture of coalition building and showed its limits. Instead, voting at the United Nations and support for West-led sanctions demonstrated who the “core players” were in defending the international order. The U.S-led international responses to the PRC’s bellicosity will probably witness core players sticking together and many states in the political South remaining neutral.

Despite its pessimistic landscape, Russia’s war helped better simulate an eventual armed conflict provoked by China, most probably in the East China Sea theater around Taiwan. The recent U.S. agreement with the Philippines also demonstrated how a former fence-sitter could wisely come to the side of the Indo-Pacific coalition. Along with Japan’s emboldened defense posture, this agreement is another step onto the new stage of Indo-Pacific strategies. The circle is tightening around China.

The world is in crisis, engendered by Russia’s bald aggression. But this has strengthened the case for defending the rules-based international order. What happened to Ukraine must not be repeated in the Indo-Pacific by China. This region must be kept free from coercion and predation. With the benefit of clearer perspectives, the United States, Japan, and other like-minded partners must boldly enter the new Indo-Pacific stage by joining forces to keep their region free and open. The future of this century very much depends on these next steps.

Kei Hakata is a professor at Seikei University in Tokyo. Brendon J. Cannon is an assistant professor of international security at Khalifa University in Abu Dhabi. Both Cannon and Hakata are the editors of Indo-Pacific Strategies: Navigating Geopolitics at the Dawn of a New Age.

Image: U.S. Navy Flickr.