A new naval arms-control treaty involving China would take care of the most threatening problem in East Asia. Today, a naval arms race between China and America looms that could be as serious and threatening as the Anglo-German battleship race in the first decade of the last century, or the American-Japanese naval race in the late 1930s that helped lead to World War II. Such a treaty might also lead to greater cooperation between Beijing and Washington, so that the two could jointly tackle the problems of the Korean Peninsula and possibly bring China into the present Russian-American nuclear arms control regime. The main risk of a conference is that a political treaty emerges that is little more than appeasement of China. But inviting the other territorial claimants in South East Asia should preclude this. The other main risk is that the conference could fail and increase political tensions in the region. But the fear of failure can always be an excuse for not acting, and without serious treatment the problem will only grow worse.

The fate of interwar arms control was tied to that of the Japanese regime. It flourished during the brief era of prewar Japanese democracy and then ended when political assassinations and events in China helped militarists to capture control of the government. China has never had a democratic government. Whether or not arms control will work will depend largely on China’s motives for its aggressive actions in the South and East China Seas. Is its anti-access/area denial strategy based on carving out safe zones for its SSBNs in order to enhance nuclear deterrence, or is it part of a new imperial strategy meant to manage the ruling Communist Party’s declining legitimacy? If the policy is largely defensive in nature, naval arms control could be an alternate means to preserving these zones. If the motives are more connected to domestic politics and economic exploitation of natural resources, such as oil, arms control could prove much more difficult to implement.

Thomas G. Mitchell has a doctorate in international relations from the University of Southern California. He has studied both nuclear and conventional arms control. He is the author of several books on Israel and on American history.

Image: USS Nimitz conducts an aerial demonstration. Flickr/U.S. Navy