Putin’s Fourth Term: New Faces—Old Politics

June 2, 2018 Topic: Security Region: Eurasia Tags: PutinRussiaPoliticsWarMilitary

Putin’s Fourth Term: New Faces—Old Politics

Putin has set a goal of turning Russia into a “modern and vibrant country” capable of achieving breakthroughs in all areas of life.

Moscow cannot understand Washington’s inexplicable hatred of Iran and the regime of Bashar al-Assad. Overthrowing Assad would lead to chaos similar to that in Libya. In addition, Sunni Islamists would likely seize power there, leading to serious problems for all. However, the Trump administration, driven by a policy of ideological hatred for Iran coupled with an equally ideological love of Israel, is stubbornly pursuing this line. Moscow maintains good relations with Tel Aviv and, of course, is not interested in creating a threat to Israel’s existence. In theory, the parties could reach an agreement according to which ruling authority in Syria would be consolidated under the leadership of a secular regime, all foreign troops would withdraw simultaneously, and Israel would receive security guarantees. Washington, however, is unlikely to agree to such terms.

As a result, Putin must pursue a balanced policy. And despite the harsh U.S. sanctions against Russia, the Trump administration has created very favorable conditions for achieving such a balance. Washington’s withdrawal from the Iran deal, the economic pressure it is applying to Europe and China, and its ill-defined position on Korea make it possible for Russia to deepen its cooperation with China while improving the atmosphere with Europe. Taken together, it enables Moscow to continue its current course without incurring significant losses.

Alexander Lukin is head of the Department of International Relations at National Research University Higher School of Economics, Moscow, Russia.

Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin walks down the stairs after an inauguration ceremony in Cathedral Square at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia May 7, 2018. Sputnik/Sergei Guneev/Pool via REUTERS