It’s too early to say for certain what India would look like without its oldest political party. For BJP partisans, the end of Congress could signal the end of the ideas that kept India poor and divided along caste and community lines. For the one-fifth of Indians who still stand by the grand old party, it means the opposite—the demise of one of the developing world’s great socialist experiments, and the dawn of an uncertain new future for India under a more assertively Hindu leadership.

For the United States, the eclipse of Congress would require readjusting to new political realities in a country central to the so-called pivot to Asia. Over the years, Washington has often found itself at odds with Congress-led governments in New Delhi, albeit less so since the end of the Cold War. But at the same time, many Americans feel a greater comfort level with the Westernized Nehru-Gandhis than with a homespun Hindu-nationalist leader like Modi. Whether U.S.-Indian relations prosper under Modi will depend in large measure on his ability to fulfill his promise to focus on economic development and downplay identity politics.

For now, then, Congress faces the biggest challenge in its 129-year history. Will the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty ride out this storm, as it has others in the past? Or will a resurgent BJP under Modi achieve his oft-stated goal of a “Congress-free India”? Until now, nobody has won by betting consistently against the first family of Indian politics or the party with which it’s synonymous. But this time may be different.

Sadanand Dhume is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Follow him on Twitter: @dhume.

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