As for the “military component to this pressure,” the PRC uses all forms of attack short of resorting to the use of force. To the PRC, this is Political Warfare. It consists of several interrelated strategies that, for now, take place in the cultural, diplomatic, economic, legal, military, and propaganda domains. This warfare is combined with a united front strategy to divide the Taiwanese society.

In the near to midterm, the PRC would avoid using force against Taiwan for reasons mentioned above, as well as because it “cannot easily recover Taiwan by military means without destroying all they are trying to recover.”

Nevertheless, if an outside power like the United States interferes in the cross-strait relationship to the extent that it crosses a redline (or the PRC perceives the United States crossed a redline), it could compel the PRC to use force to deter and even degrade U.S. interference, as well as prevent Taiwanese independence elements on the island from taking actions that lead to the permanent political separation of the two sides.

A Return to Cold War Practices

Indeed, Yoho is right that “there is much at stake.” He asserts that Taiwan is “an important and longstanding partner of the United States, an exemplar of democracy and human rights in a region short on both.” His observations, however, indicate the United States is reverting to Cold War policies that used Taiwan as a counter against the PRC, as Taiwan’s democracy could now represent a bulwark against the PRC’s resurgent Chinese communism.

It is not clear what advantage the United States would gain by returning to cold-war practices. To date, similar policies aiming to encircle and contain the PRC have contributed to some of the emerging trends in the PRC and its foreign policy. Using Taiwan as leverage against the PRC could intensify the trajectories of those trends. In turn, it could drive more changes to the rapidly evolving regional security architecture, making the execution of U.S. regional policy and the protection of U.S. national interests there even more challenging than before.

Conclusion

Yoho’s article tends to miss the mark in some areas but highlights the challenges the United States faces in crafting an effective policy. In my previous TNI article I underscored the need for the United States to adhere to the One China Policy. In doing so, it can maintain a policy that the PRC, KMT, and the DPP could not misperceive, whereas in this current climate deviations from the policy could cause the actors to miscalculate and turn the Taiwan Strait into a military flashpoint again.

Judith Norton, PhD, is the Managing Director of the East Asia Peace & Security Initiative. Dr. Norton worked in the PRC for nearly a decade, as well as served as a research fellow on Taiwan as the recipient of the ROC (Taiwan) Ministry of Foreign Affairs Taiwan Fellowship.