How much money will Iran receive with the lifting of economic sanctions? The Obama administration estimates that Iran has between $100 billion and $140 in frozen oil revenues and U.S. officials believe that it could receive between $30 billion and $50 billion as a so-called “signing bonus.” In total, the Israeli government estimates that Tehran can expect to add as much as $700 billion to its coffers and is concerned that much of this money will be used to acquire newer, more capable conventional weapons and ballistic missiles for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and proxies such as Hezbollah. Although much of this economic windfall will undoubtedly be spent on rejuvenating Iran’s economy, National Security Advisor Susan Rice has admitted that Tehran could use some of these resources to fund “bad behavior.” This is especially concerning when considering that Iran remains at the top of the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism.

It seems likely that Congress will approve the resolution and Obama will finally get his nuclear deal. In a recent New York Times interview, he said that the success of the agreement will be measured by its ability to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon and not “whether we are solving every problem that can be traced back to Iran, whether we are eliminating all their nefarious activities around the globe.” Ironically, in trying to solve the Iran nuclear problem the Obama administration might well be creating another by enabling Iran's military expansion and influence that will increase sectarian tensions and upset the balance of power in this volatile region. Ultimately, time will tell whether the USCR 2231 represents a diplomatic triumph for Obama’s foreign policy in the Middle East, or if the U.S. was indeed “fleeced” by Iran, as alleged by Senator Bob Corker (R-Tenn).

James Cook is an Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College. The views expressed here are his own.

Image: State Department​