The Top 10 Global Security Risks and Opportunities in 2021

The Top 10 Global Security Risks and Opportunities in 2021

The coronavirus pandemic has brought focus to the persistent threat of ever-mutating viruses. The rapidity of vaccine development is the product of artificial intelligence, big data, and accumulated research. This combination of advanced technologies has allowed bioscience to move with unprecedented speed to combat new viruses.

Probability: low to medium.

7. Artificial Intelligence Breeds New Forms of Cooperation, Not Just Competition

Based on the set of ethics and principles on artificial intelligence (AI) independently adopted by China, the United States, the European Union, and others, there’s consensus on the need for common standards and norms. These include the desire to be technically safe, show accountability and transparency in assessing failure, ensure privacy and good data governance, and work in service to society and the environment. The challenge is to operationalize and codify such standards. Big Tech has already done so for some apps using technologies such as facial recognition. All governments have an interest in avoiding potential catastrophes. So shouldn’t governments take the next step and establish a universally agreed baseline on the harms versus the benefits coming from the AI revolution? Such a step could provide direction for international and national institutions developing regulations to minimize negative impacts while maximizing potential benefits. As AI leaders, the United States and China should begin a dialogue on these matters. The United States should also consult with key allies on bringing an agenda to the Group of Twenty and the UN that includes a global AI Commission to set and enforce standards and monitor AI usage.

Probability: low.

8. A “Manhattan Project” Emerges for Battery-Storage Breakthroughs

The biggest single impediment to accelerating the transition to a post-petroleum economy is energy storage. Better, cheaper batteries could bring down costs and increase capacity, making electric cars less expensive and more appealing. Solar and wind energy only work when the sun is shining and there is wind, so energy storage is key to scaling up fast-growing renewable sources. More capable, cost-effective batteries—not arbitrary “we’ll be carbon-free by X date” aspirations—are essential to meeting climate goals with green energy. Biden should bring together the private sector, Congress and governors, national labs, and academia to form, under the leadership of the White House and the Department of Energy, a public-private National Commission with ample funding to accelerate a breakthrough in energy storage.

Probability: medium to high.

9. A Universal Coronavirus Vaccine Is Developed

The coronavirus pandemic has brought focus to the persistent threat of ever-mutating viruses. The rapidity of vaccine development is the product of artificial intelligence, big data, and accumulated research, all of which have allowed bioscience to move with unprecedented speed to combat new viruses. It will be difficult but still possible to create a global public good: a universal vaccine to prepare for the next pandemic. The United States should take the lead in assembling a consortium of the willing and able that pools research-and-development efforts to create a universal coronavirus vaccine. It can build on the work done by the World Health Organization and U.S. National Institutes of Health; it can build on top of international cooperation to address the coronavirus.

Probability: low to medium.

10. Transatlantic Ties are Renewed to Cooperate on Technology and Counter China

The EU Commission is already formulating ideas for a “tech alliance” and greater cooperation with the United States against China, though EU member states will have the last word on what this looks like. There’s a growing belief in Europe that the region must establish “strategic autonomy,” and that many Eastern and Central European members of the EU want stronger economic ties with Chinaif they don’t already depend on China as a prime export market. Brussels is interested in widening cooperation where possible with Beijing and in engagement with Moscow, even if there are limited immediate gains. The EU is also still intent on “taxing” U.S. tech giants, if not finding ways to trim their market dominance, and remains wedded to its General Data Protection Regulation guaranteeing consumer privacy. Nevertheless, Biden has an early opportunity to rebuild transatlantic relations to better coordinate tech and China policy, so long as his administration doesn’t alienate EU allies by calling on them to join a new cold war against China and Russia. The U.S.-EU tech alliance, if it happens, will require concessions from both sides.

Probability: medium to high.

Mathew J. Burrows, PhD, serves as the director of the Atlantic Council’s Foresight, Strategy, and Risks Initiative in the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. He retired in 2013 from a twenty-eight-year career at the CIA and the National Intelligence Council. Follow him on Twitter at @matburrows.

Robert A. Manning is a senior fellow of the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council. He was a senior counselor to the under-secretary of State for Global Affairs from 2001 to 2004, a member of the U.S. Department of State Policy Planning Staff from 2004 to 2008 and on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Strategic Futures Group from 2008 to 2012. Follow him on Twitter at @Rmanning4.