Why the Coronavirus Is a Hinge for the Future of U.S.-China Relations

Why the Coronavirus Is a Hinge for the Future of U.S.-China Relations

Will Beijing and Washington work things out?

More importantly, none of the U.S. pushback against elements of Beijing’s current campaign should prevent the opportunity—and indeed the imperative—for China and the United States to use the COVID crisis as a vehicle for arresting the downward spiral in their relationship. If the virus has made the U.S.-China relationship more difficult, it also offers the perfect occasion to set aside differences and recognize both the immediate and long-term benefits of working together toward shared goals. Last week two groups of prominent scholars—one Chinese and one American—published open letters calling on their respective governments to come together in meeting the challenge of COVID-19 and to collaborate in an accelerated effort to alleviate its impact, develop a vaccine, and ultimately defeat the common enemy on behalf of all humanity.

COVID-19 has not altered the fundamentals of the strategic relationship between the United States and China. Geopolitics, mutual distrust, and systemic competition have been pushing the two countries toward confrontation and mutual recrimination. Furthermore, both sides are trying to bolster their positions and hold each other accountable for any hindrances. But this drift is not inexorable. Beijing and Washington can still move to de-escalate tensions and forge a path toward rapprochement and peaceful coexistence. However, this will require both sides to reach a more accurate understanding of each other’s perspectives and ambitions, acknowledge the global interests that they share—especially in reining in COVID-19—and accept the reality of interdependence.

U.S.-China relations will inevitably involve a mix of competition and cooperation. Now is the time to maximize the channels for cooperation. Doing so can only enhance the potential for an exit ramp from the pre-COVID escalation of U.S.-China tensions.

Paul Heer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Center for the National Interest dealing with Chinese and East Asian issues. He served as National Intelligence Officer for East Asia from 2007 to 2015. He has since served as Robert E. Wilhelm Research Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for International Studies and as Adjunct Professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. He is the author of Mr. X and the Pacific: George F. Kennan and American Policy in East Asia (Cornell University Press, 2018).