Perhaps America’s most notable advantage, however, is its commanding military superiority. While it is true that China’s anti-access/area-denial capabilities are making it harder for the U.S. Pacific Command to project power in Asia, even People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officials acknowledge that China will not become a global military power until 2050 at the earliest. Until military analysts are concerned about a U.S.-Chinese conflict in North America, any talk of a bipolar military order will be premature. But even in the western Pacific, there are reasons to doubt China’s growing military might. The PLA is a notoriously corrupt organization where party meddling undermines military professionalism. China is certainly procuring expensive hardware, but the ability of its forces to perform on the battlefield is an open question. Moreover, China’s lack of an institutionalized national-security process has resulted in heedless decision making. China has consistently been surprised by the strength of the negative international reaction to its assertive policies, including, most notably, Hanoi’s resistance to China’s deployment of a billion-dollar oil rig in disputed waters off of Vietnam’s coast in 2014. The rig may have completed its mission, but at high cost to the Sino-Vietnamese relationship. Ties between Washington and Hanoi have since flourished, with the State Department announcing soon after that the United States would lift its ban on the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam.

Following America’s failures in Iraq and Afghanistan, it has become fashionable to point out the limits of U.S. military power, but the free flow of information in the formulation of national-security policy, smooth civil-military relations, highly skilled and professional military officers, aggregate military superiority and the overwhelming power of Washington’s global alliances make for formidable military advantages. Some argue that the balance of resolve would favor China in any East Asian contingency, but Germany’s greater stake in World War II–era Europe proved no match for American military might and its league of powerful allies. Defense planners in Beijing must be highly cognizant of the fact that the United States has arguably never lost a regular, state-on-state war. If, God forbid, China’s rise does result in World War III, both theory and history suggest that it will turn out disastrously for Beijing.

 

DURING THE past century, the United States has sought to advance political liberalization around the world as part of its grand strategy, and, in the not-too-distant past, U.S. policy makers explicitly called for the “peaceful evolution” of Chinese politics in the direction of greater democracy. In recent years, however, democracy promotion and human rights have been less prominent in the day-to-day practice of U.S. foreign policy toward China, as the bilateral agenda has taken on an increasing number of regional and global issues. Yet many Americans still harbor a long-term aspiration for China to eventually become a full-fledged democracy. Indeed, few think that there can be genuine long-term stability or deep and sustained cooperation between the two countries absent fundamental political changes in Beijing.

Liberal internationalists argue that the long-term goal of American strategy toward China should be to peacefully incorporate Beijing into the American-led international system. According to this perspective, increasing interaction through markets and international institutions will enhance incentives for cooperation. As China develops economically, China’s growing middle class will demand a voice in politics, leading inevitably to a democratic transition. Democratic-peace theory tells us that a democratic China will be more cooperative and less prone to war, completing Beijing’s full incorporation into a more peaceful, rules-based international order.

Those who argue that the foremost objective of America’s China policy should be to preserve American primacy also see an important role for democratization in China. Perhaps, drawing too heavily on the analogy from the Cold War’s end, they see the demise of the CCP, much like the collapse of the Soviet Union, leading to the quietus of an enemy and an indefinite extension of the American era. Many neoconservatives, who tend to place great stock in the internal character of regimes, would also see a democratic China as less truculent and, therefore, less threatening to American primacy.

All of these perspectives, however, may be overly optimistic for the very same reason: a smooth transition to democracy in China actually would create a number of serious challenges for the United States. Unlike under the CCP, a democratically ruled China would have less to fear from thoroughgoing economic reforms, which would increase the likelihood that Beijing eventually adopts the economic institutions necessary to become the world’s unchallenged economic champion. With sound economic institutions in place and political protections against arbitrary financial decisions, Shanghai would be much more likely to replace New York as the new hub of global finance and the renminbi to take over as a new reserve currency. A liberal-democratic China would also have more soft power in diplomatic relations. Its neighbors would have less to fear, and a free China could establish webs of institutions and meaningful political alliances. America’s foothold in Asia would crumble as regional states no longer sought Uncle Sam’s protection from the Red Chinese threat. Finally, a reformed decision-making process on national-security issues and a less corrupt PLA would allow Beijing to better calibrate its diplomacy and to prevail in combat should diplomacy fail. In short, a liberal-democratic China would be much better positioned to seize global preeminence from the United States, while the autocratic CCP is much more likely to bungle China’s rise.

At present, much of the China debate in the United States seems to assume that all good things go together. But this is rarely the case. Instead, U.S. leaders may face an important and difficult dilemma when it comes to thinking about a long-term strategy for China. On the one hand, Washington can hope for, or even actively promote, democratization in China in an effort to liberalize China and make it more cooperative internationally, but only by increasing the risk that the United States eventually hands over the keys of global mastery to Beijing. On the other hand, Washington can accept CCP rule in an attempt to maintain the American era, but only at the cost of living with a more dysfunctional, autocratic and belligerent China. Perhaps the most difficult dilemma, however, rests with readers in Beijing. The CCP can continue to reign in China, but it will be consigned to ruling over a dysfunctional state destined for second-tier status. Or China can emerge as a true world leader, but only if the CCP relinquishes power and creates the kind of democratic political system that has proven over the centuries to be a prerequisite for lasting international dominance.

 

Matthew Kroenig is associate professor of government and foreign service and the international relations field chair at Georgetown University and a senior fellow at the Brent Scowcroft Center on International Security at the Atlantic Council.

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