Of course, the Kim regime may also choose to forgo this outcome altogether; deciding it has nothing to lose, it may choose to unleash its weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear weapons. This would seal North Korea’s fate, but if it feels as though its demise is inevitable, then it may try to take their enemies down with them in a blaze of glory. Thus, the world ends up at the very outcome so feared, its plausibility has handicapped policy towards North Korea for so long.

The only way to avoid this outcome would be to negotiate an end to the war. This would be a politically untenable move for both sides, however. The Kim regime’s legitimacy would come under fire from within, as it would be a concession that the war is unwinnable for North Korea. This is especially true if the North was the initial instigator of the war. For the United States and South Korea, it would be an admission that there is no path to victory and that the status quo that existed prior to the outbreak of hostilities would need to be restored. Leaders on both sides would find it impossible to justify the years of expenditures in blood and treasure. In Washington, this translates into lost elections and damage to America’s credibility and prestige. In Pyongyang, it translates into instability that would place the country at risk of civil war and collapse.

In the end, a cruel irony emerges from the analysis. No matter the scenario, all roads seem to lead to the abyss. Knowing this, either side would be incentivized to do nothing; it would take a fair amount of willpower from leaders on both sides to participate in the next iteration of the Korean War. This is especially true if those leaders understand that the skirmish would end much the way as the first one did—inconclusively.

Edward Chang is a contractor-mariner for Military Sealift Command. When not at sea, he is writes on military history and national security-related topics. Any thoughts and opinions expressed here are the author’s and do not represent the official position of any government agency.

Image: American and Korean F-16s at Seosan Air Base, South Korea. U.S. Air Force photo/Senior Airman Taylor Curry