As his stance on Russia partly proceeds from domestic considerations and as French foreign policy does not happen in a vacuum, a Fillon presidency appears unlikely to bring the radical U-turn that some have heralded. It would have implications for Europe’s policies and politics though, because of Fillon’s cold views on the EU. Finally, France and EU policies towards Russia will be contingent on the evolution of Moscow’s own actions, even though they are very rarely factored into current predictions.

David Cadier is a Fellow at the Centre for Transatlantic Relations at SAIS Johns Hopkins University and an Associate at LSE IDEAS. He recently co-edited Russia’s Foreign Policy: Ideas, Domestic Politics and External Relations (Palgrave, 2015).

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