China and Russia have declared themselves to be in a “friendship with no limits.” Yet, there clearly are still limits between the two autocratic Eurasian powers. Both nations have expressed a desire over the centuries to become maritime powers. They are, historically, continental militaries with minor naval capabilities. In the modern era, Chinese and Russian leaders have endeavored to change this strategic dynamic—with little luck. 

Russia today is technically the world’s second-strongest military power whereas China is in third place. However, if you were to include China’s economic dynamism and technological development, there is a strong case that Beijing is in the second position and Moscow is in third. A key element of any serious alliance—especially one “with no limits”—is burden-sharing.

But, when it comes to their naval ambitions, neither China nor Russia is really sharing burdens.

This is especially the case in the area of aircraft carrier development. In the dark recesses of the internet, there have been feared scenarios proffered about a possible Sino-Russian aircraft carrier-building program. Indeed, at different points in the last decade, both Beijing and Moscow have expressed a desire to build a carrier force. China has already built three carriers with a fourth on the way (with rumors of a nuclear-powered carrier being in the works). The Russians, meanwhile, have nothing to show for all their talk.

Fear Scenarios About a Sino-Russian Carrier Force

But the fear scenarios being bandied about on defense forums online are, frankly, ridiculous. Sure, China is building a force of carriers. That’s because they have the money and industrial capacity to do so. What’s more, China’s carrier force is not the centerpiece of its naval power projection capabilities like they are for the United States Navy. Chinese carriers, at least for now, are designed to operate well within China’s near-abroad. These Chinese carriers will fight behind the protective shield of China’s anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) systems.

As for the Russians, it remains a mystery what they could possibly do with carriers—let alone how they could build them under present conditions, with every resource being diverted to winning their war against neighboring Ukraine. 

Even if they weren’t fixated on Ukraine, why would the Russians really want to invest in such an onerous program? They’ve not had much luck with carriers in the past. Just look at the shambolic Admiral Kuznetsov carrier that is currently sitting in port, rusting, unlikely to ever again belch the tarry smoke generated by its ridiculous Mazut fuel-powered engines across the open sea.

China and Russia Don’t Need to Build Aircraft Carriers

Ah, but perhaps these two great powers of China and Russia, with their limitless friendship, could combine their capabilities to create a joint carrier program. This has been a fear of some analysts. Although, at present, it is unfounded. Yes, these two powers want carriers (mainly for prestige purposes). 

But this fear is unfounded.

So long as there is a robust A2/AD capability shielding Chinese and/or Russian forces from U.S. carriers, keeping those U.S. forces over-the-horizon, having carriers of their own will always be an ancillary matter for both the Chinese and Russians.

About the Author: 

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is available for purchase wherever books are sold. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.