The Rise of Global Civilization

March 13, 2013 Topic: Global Governance

The Rise of Global Civilization

An interview with Kishore Mahbubani, author of The Great Convergence.

Now on things like currency and cybersecurity and all of that, this is rare, I advocate multilateralism so strongly in this book because things like currency wars, no country can solve it unilaterally, you have to achieve a global agreement on what rules we adopt. When you carry out QE1, QE2, QE3, as you know, you flood the world with inflation too, and one reason why Mubarak fell was because prices of food went up in Egypt. So we all have to agree on a common set of rules. Similarly, in terms of cyberwarfare, let’s have a multilateral agreement on what countries can do and cannot do in the area of cyberwarfare and draw clear boundaries and we all follow the boundaries. But you cannot ask one country to be a saint while another country remains a sinner.

RWM: Let me ask you about Israel. You have written, and you imply in this book, that time is not on Israel’s side, and you suggest that Israel is basically relying now almost exclusively on its alliance with U.S. power to maintain its control over the occupied territories. What do you see as the future of Israel, the future of America, and the future of the Palestinians in the context of what you were writing there?

KM: Well, I actually emphasize that I am a friend of Israel, and I say if I see a friend of mine walking towards a cliff, do I say, “Stop!” or do I say, “carry on”? And I think the biggest damage that the Israeli lobby has done to Israel today is that it is not alerting Israel that time is no more on its side. Because you see, America power, as a share of the global GNP, even though in absolute terms, it remains and grows, in relative terms it is going to decline. The power of the Islamic world has troughed; it is the lowest it has been in one thousand years. This has to go up, right?

And so Israel will be caught in a pincer movement. And so it is in Israel’s interest to make peace on a two-state solution now while it is strong and powerful, while America is number one. But when America becomes number two, right, and the Islamic world becomes much stronger and more confident, then the logic will change because then you may have some “smart-asses” in the Islamic world saying, “Time is on our side. What’s the hurry? Let’s wait it out.” Then the opportunity will be gone.

Right now, as you know, there is agreement in the Arab League to agree to a two-state solution, it was actually proposed by the King of Saudi Arabia as a proposal once. So this is the time to do it. Cause if you wait, the assumption is if you wait, somehow America will grow stronger, Israel will go stronger. But that is no longer the case.

And, by the way, public opinion, the sad part about Israel, the really sad part, because you know it is a good country, very successful in its own right and so and so forth, but if you did surveys of public opinion globally, the reputation of Israel is very low, and that is very sad. And it should worry not only about its standing in America, which still remains high, but it should worry about its standing not in the remaining 88 percent, but in the remaining 96 percent of the world because even in Europe public opinion has turned against Israel.

RWM: Yes, yes. But as a political analyst, do you believe Israel, your friend, is going to heed your warning to stop or continue towards that cliff?

KM: Well, I think a lot depends on the signals it gets from America. If the world’s strongest power tells me, “Don’t worry. You have a blank check,” I will carry on. But if the world’s strongest power tells me, “Hey, maybe you should be careful.” And by the way I come from a small state that lives in a difficult region. Singapore is surrounded by more Muslims than—Singapore is a non-Muslim state surrounded by more Muslims than Israel is.

So you have to respect your geopolitical environment and you must come to pragmatic terms with your geopolitical environment. You must understand, you cannot change your geography; you cannot change your neighbors. If you are going to be with your neighbors for the next thousand years, and not going to disappear, please develop better and better relations with them rather than worse and worse relations with them.

And, you know, the saddest part is watching Israel’s relationship with Turkey. Turkey was Israel’s number one friend in the Islamic world in its neighborhood. And today, the Turks are so angry at Israel, and how can you give up your best friend in the Islamic world when you are in the Islamic region? That’s not wise. You shouldn’t be doing this.

All I am asking Israel to do is to make careful, pragmatic adjustments that all states do, the way that Switzerland, for example, right. Switzerland did not have to contribute money when the Euro was falling apart, right, but they realized they have a lot to lose if the Euro falls apart. So voluntarily they made a contribution. That’s what you do. You understand your geopolitical context and work with it and not against it.

RWM: That is my last question and I want to thank you very much for joining us. That was a very, very good discussion and it is a very provocative book.

KM: Thank you. I appreciate it very much.