The most important long-term player in Eurasia is China, because of immense eventual needs for energy and water resources. This is likely to lead to economic integration with countries like Kazakhstan, but poses the most significant long-term opportunity for regional development and threat for regional conflict. Russia will be especially sensitive to the demographic threat posed by illegal Chinese migrants in Siberia; as well as mounting Chinese influence in Russia's key zone of engagement.

Yet, in the short term, Russia-and to a lesser extent the United States-will remain the principle arbiters of Eurasia's destiny. The future stability of the region will be in part a function of the US-Russia relationship, and accordingly we should expect to see less global focus on Eurasia-at least until China becomes a more significant actor.

Ian Bremmer is President of Eurasia Group and Senior Fellow & Director of Eurasia Studies at the World Policy Institute.