Where do we go from here? First, Turkey will need several days to form the new government under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the leader of the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), who is assuming the prime ministership. (He was banned from running in the November 2002 general elections because of a conviction for inciting religious hatred. Following a constitutional amendment, he won a parliamentary seat in by-elections on March 9 and sworn in as a member of parliament on March 11.) The vote of confidence for the new government is not likely to take place for about a week, and the second resolution then cannot be brought to the parliament until March 19^th at the earliest. 

Erdogan has enormous bravado, believing he can take on the U.S., if need be. He made it clear in an over three hour meeting with U.S. Ambassador Robert Pearson on March 9 and on a phone conversation with President Bush on March 10 that he would not bring the second vote to the parliament before the UN decision on March 17, and not before the future of Iraq and the status of the Turkmen are finalized. According to White House leaks to the media, Bush was rather unhappy with the call, and the war machinery moved to the so-called "Plan B." Turks, however, believe the call was appropriate and the United States would wait for the second Turkish vote-after all, there were so many other "deadlines" which passed without the United States making a move. Indeed, the latest British efforts to set up "benchmarks" for Saddam Hussein support the Turkish view that no deadline that Washington insists upon is truly final or binding. 

Due to a "clash of civilizations," or at least of political perceptions, the Turks simply will not believe time is up until it really is, and therefore believe that the U.S. should stop hoping for a yes vote before the war. However, there has to be a way for Turkey to come in after the start of the war.  

Without Turkey the U.S. could still wage a successful war in Iraq, but it would be longer and costlier. Moreover, Turkish cooperation would be important in maintaining stability in Iraq following the war. Above all, losing Muslim Turkey while the war against terrorism is still a top priority would allow the United States to be cast throughout the Muslim world in the mold of "crusaders." 

For its part, Turkey will certainly pay for its leadership's inexperience by at least a decade of political and economic instability. Turkey's EU hopes would be further shattered following the entry of Turkish soldiers into Northern Iraq, as a German governing party member indicated to me at a meeting last week. The AKP party is unfortunately reverting back to its core Islamist elements and such negative developments would speed up this process.  

As a result of the parliamentary vote, both sides will pay a price.   

 

Zeyno Baran is the Director for International Security and Energy Programs at The Nixon Center (http://www.nixoncenter.org).