The most recent Washington Post-ABC News poll released Wednesday shows Trump leading Biden among likely voters in Arizona, 49 percent to 48 percent—an advantage that lands within the survey’s margin of error.
The other Washington Post-ABC News poll reported that 51 percent of Florida likely voters back Trump, while 47 percent support Biden. This 4 percent lead also falls within the margin of error for Florida’s polling data.
When the paired surveys expand to the Sun Belt state’s registered voters, Biden carries a tight advantage. In Arizona, Biden leads 49 percent to 47 percent among the state’s registered voters, and in Florida, registered voters are split with 48 percent behind the former vice-president, while 47 percent back Trump.
The poll also discovered a tight race for the Senate seat in Arizona among likely voters, with Democrat Mark Kelly at 49 percent and Sen. Martha McSally (R) at 48 percent.
According to the RealClearPolitics average of Arizona’s polls as of Sept. 23, Biden holds a 4.4 percent edge over the president. A New York Times-Siena College poll released last week indicated Biden ahead by 9 percent in Arizona, however most of the state’s polling data suggest a tight, competitive race.
In 2016, Trump won Arizona’s eleven electoral votes over then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. The state hasn’t switched blue since the 1996 presidential election where President Bill Clinton rallied support from the predominantly Republican state.
In Florida—a battleground state that Trump narrowly won in 2016—the RealClearPolitics polling average of the state’s surveys as of Sept. 23 indicated a tight lead for Biden at just 1.5 percent. Polls conducted in the Sunshine State have presented a rigid race for the two candidates, as surveys show the race either at a statistical tie or with Biden ahead by two or three points.
Trump’s handling of the coronavirus remains underwater in both states as 54 percent of Arizona registered voters say they disapprove of his handling of the outbreak and 52 percent of Florida registered voters said the same.
The president’s handling of the economy, however, has boosted his reelection chances as 57 percent of registered voters in Arizona approve of the job he’s doing and 54 percent of registered voters in Florida said the same.
The Washington Post-ABC polls were conducted Sept. 15-20 and surveyed 765 Florida registered voters, including 613 likely voters; and 701 Arizona registered voters, including 579 likely voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent among registered voters in Florida and 4.5 percent in Arizona. In both states, among likely voters, the margin of error is 4.5 percent.
Rachel Bucchino is a reporter at the National Interest. Her work has appeared in The Washington Post, U.S. News & World Report and The Hill.