The Russian invasion of Ukraine prompted the most significant conflict on European soil since the end of World War Two. 

For nearly two years, the two sides have been embroiled in a bitter fight. For Ukraine, it’s a fight for survival; for independence from a barbarous dictator and his cronies. Conversely, for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin, it’s a fight with no tomorrow—either they win, and their bloody gamble comes through, or they lose, and Russia is humiliated. 

In the middle of this clash of reasons is the ordinary Ukrainian and Russian soldier. And he is the one shouldering most of the burden and loss. 

Ukraine War Casualties Are Piling Up, 500K by 2025

Every day since February 24, 2022, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has been publishing the manpower and materiel losses of the Russian military, paramilitary mercenary forces, and pro-Russian separatist insurgents. In addition, Western intelligence services have been providing their own estimates periodically. Although the Ukrainian and Western assessments have often clashed when it comes to Russian heavy weapon systems losses, they have largely aligned when it comes to Russian troops killed, wounded, or captured in action. 

In a recent estimate of the war, the British Military Intelligence stated that the average daily number of Russian casualties in the fighting has increased by almost 300 during 2023. 

“The increase in daily average almost certainly reflects the degradation of the Russian readiness force and their movement to a low quality, high quantity mass army since the partial mobilization in September 2022,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.

The difference between 2022 and 2023 is stark. In some cases, Russian daily casualties were more than three times higher. For example, in June 2022, the Russian forces averaged 172 losses a day. A year later, that number had skyrocketed to 667 troops a day. This past November and December are the two deadliest months of the war so far for the Russian forces, with 952 and 989 daily losses, respectively. 

“If casualties continue at the current rate over the next year, Russia will have sustained over half a million personnel killed and wounded in Ukraine,” the British Military Intelligence assessed.

Considering that the invasion force that assaulted Ukraine in February 2022 numbered approximately 190,000 troops, these projected losses are devastating for the readiness and capabilities of the Russian armed forces. 

“It will likely take Russia five to ten years to rebuild a cohort of highly trained, experienced readiness force,” the British Military Intelligence added. 

In contrast, during the war in Afghanistan, Russia’s last major conflict, Moscow lost 70,000 men killed and wounded in ten years (1979-1989).

Despite the extremely heavy losses and troubles with mobilization, the Russian military continues to have a ready force of troops to fuel the fighting. According to Western military estimates, Moscow fields over 300,000 troops in southern Ukraine, including Crimea. However, the quality of those troops is suspicious, at the least. Clearly, Putin and the Kremlin are playing for time, throwing men and weapon systems on the Ukrainians with the hope that Kyiv and its Western partners will bulge under the pressure. 

About the Author  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. Email the author: [email protected].

All images are Shutterstock.