Summary and Key Points: Amid intense fighting, Russia has made steady gains in the Donbas, now threatening a key Ukrainian supply route. Following a costly failed offensive toward Kharkiv, Russia forced Ukraine to divert resources, enabling tactical advances in the Donbas.

-Russian forces likely control Novooleksandrivka, moving closer to the T-05-04 road, crucial for Ukrainian logistics. Despite slow progress, Russia's advance continues. High casualties persist, with over 530,000 Russian losses since the invasion began.

-Russia's ability to generate new troops remains, though often of questionable quality, used to deplete Ukrainian forces. The outcome hinges on which side can endure the prolonged conflict.

Russia's Steady Advance in Donbas Threatens Key Ukrainian Supply Route

Against the backdrop of heavy fighting along the contact line, the Russian military is making steady gains in the Donbas, threatening a key Ukrainian supply route.

Tactical Gains and a Key Supply Route

In May, the Russian military launched a large-scale offensive in eastern Ukraine toward Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city.

Although that offensive failed at the cost of nearly 40,000 men killed, wounded, or captured, it forced the Ukrainian High Command to relocate valuable units and resources from the Donbas to deal with the threat. As such, the Russian military was able to make tactical gains in the Donbas and is now threatening an important supply road.

“Russian forces have likely taken control of the village of Novooleksandrivka, located approximately 20km north of Avdiivka, Donetsk oblast,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.

“The area has seen heavy fighting throughout 2024 and Russia has been gradually advancing since capturing Avdiivka in February 2024,” the British Military Intelligence added.

The Russian advance has been slow indeed and measured in a few miles. But it has also been steady.

“By taking control of Novooleksandrivka, Russia moves closer to threatening the T-05-04 road, one of the main supply routes for Ukrainian forces further east,” the British Military Intelligence stated.

“It is highly likely that the village of Vozdvyzhenka will be Russia’s next objective as it seeks to sever the road and disrupt Ukrainian logistics,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.

It is worth remembering that Russian President Vladimir Putin was expecting a short campaign in Ukraine that would last between three days and two weeks. Nearly 900 days later, his forces continue to take heavy casualties on a daily basis. Although the Russian military might be currently on the offensive, achieving sporadic tactical successes, it is far from any of its major operational objectives.  

530,000 Dead or Wounded: Mounting Casualties in the Ukraine War for Russia 

One thing that remains constant in the war is the high rate of Russian casualties. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, the Russian forces lost approximately 1,230 men killed, wounded, or captured, as well as 40 tactical vehicles and fuel tanks, 32 artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, 20 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, 20 unmanned aerial systems, 16 main battle tanks, 7 pieces of special equipment, and 1 cruise missile damaged or destroyed.

Overall, in nearly 24 months of combat, the Russian forces have lost nearly 530,000 men. That is twice the size of the initial invasion force. To be sure, as we have discussed previously here at The National Interest, Moscow has shown a remarkable force generation ability, sending waves of troops to the frontlines on a regular basis.

But the quality of the new recruits is questionable, to say the least, and they are often used as cannon fodder to drain Ukrainian energy and resources.

And yet, in this struggle of wills, the one left standing, howsoever battered from the fighting, will prevail.

About the Author  

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP. Email the author: [email protected].

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