What You Need to Know: The war in Ukraine could shift dramatically as reports suggest the U.S. has authorized the use of long-range munitions, such as ATACMS missiles, inside Russia’s Kursk Oblast. France and the U.K. are also considering allowing Ukraine to use Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG missiles against Russian targets.

-This decision marks a significant departure from NATO’s earlier hesitations over escalation risks. The move follows reports of North Korean troops fighting for Russia in Kursk, with Western officials hoping to deter further deployments.

-While restricted to Kursk for now, this authorization enables Ukraine to strike high-value Russian military targets, potentially altering the war's trajectory.

Ukraine Gains Green Light to Strike Inside Russia with Long-Range Missiles

The war in Ukraine might very well change course soon. It appears—there is no official confirmation yet—that the United States has authorized the use of long-range munitions inside Russian territory.

Meanwhile, France and the United Kingdom are also debating authorization for Ukraine to use their donated munitions against targets within Russia.

After months of slow but gradual tactical gains in several parts of the contact line, the Russian forces are now faced with a challenge that can’t be easily overcome.

ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP-EG Missile Could Soon Hit Russia 

U.S. officials quoted anonymously by the New York Times and Washington Post have stated that NATO has given the green light to use long-range munitions inside the Kursk Oblast, in Russia.

According to Le Figaro, European officials are debating on whether to follow the U.S. and allow the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG to be used against targets inside Russia.

The Ukrainian military will now be able to use its MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) tactical ballistic missiles against targets within Russia. And it might also be able to use the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles soon.

For months Ukraine has been requesting permission to use its powerful long-range munitions against high-value military targets inside Russia. But the U.S. and NATO always rebuffed Kyiv’s advances with the explanation that using advanced Western munitions inside Russia would escalate the conflict. However, now that President Biden’s term is coming to a close, it seems like that he wants to leave with a “gift” for Ukraine. And this decision could very well change the course of the war.

According to the U.S. officials, the White House has authorized the use of long-range weapons in response to the deployment of North Korean troops in Russia. Western intelligence estimates assess that approximately 11,000 North Korean troops are fighting on behalf of Moscow in the Kursk Oblast in what is widely seen as one of the most severe escalations in the 997-day war. Allowing Ukraine to target and destroy targets inside Russia could deter Pyongyang from sending more troops.

“ISW continues to assess that Russian forces will benefit from any partial sanctuary if Western states continue to impose restrictions on Ukraine's ability to defend itself and that the US should allow Ukraine to strike all legitimate military targets within Russia's operational and deep-rear within range of US-provided weapons – not just those in Kursk Oblast,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict.

It is estimated that the are several hundred high-value military targets, such as bases, command and control centers, air defense systems, logistical hubs, ammunition dumps, and transportation infrastructure, inside Russia and within easy reach of Ukraine’s Western long-range weaponry.

However, there is some ambiguity as to the extent of the authorities given to the Ukrainian military. If the use of ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP-EG munitions is allowed but only against targets within the Kursk Oblast—Russian territory invaded by Ukraine in August—then the overall effect will be smaller than it could be.

“The partial lifting of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western-provided long-range weapons against military objects within Kursk Oblast will not completely deprive Russian forces of their sanctuary in Russian territory, as hundreds of military objects remain within ATACMS range in other Russian border regions,” the Institute for the Study of War added.

Nevertheless, it is a start. And something Ukraine had been waiting for months.

About the Author and Expertise 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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