The Russian military continues to make tactical gains on the battlefield. However, it is doubtful whether the Russian forces can take advantage of their tactical successes and turn them into something impactful. 

Russian Tactical Gains and the Question  

For the past six months, the Russian military has assumed a strategy of attrition and tactical gains. Every day, Russian commanders send thousands of troops over the top against the Ukrainian positions. On average, about 1,500 of these men get killed or wounded every day.  

Slowly, however, these World War One-style attacks reaped some tactical results. In exchange for hundreds of thousands of casualties, the Russian military has captured a few miles of territory and some important urban centers, including Chasiv Yar, Vuhledar, and Avdiivka. In addition, the Russian forces are threatening other key points on the Ukrainian defensive line, such as the key logistical hub of Pokrovsk.  

“Russian forces continue to make significant tactical advances in western Donetsk Oblast and are coming closer to enveloping Velyka Novosilka and advancing towards important Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) supplying the rest of western Donetsk Oblast and running into eastern Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia Oblasts,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in its latest operational estimate of the conflict.  

A major question is whether the Russian military can take advantage of its tactical successes and turn them into an operational breakthrough. Thus far, the Russian military has shown an inability to take advantage of tactical gains and turn them into something more important. Moreover, the Russian forces have shown that they can’t fight modern maneuver warfare.  

Conversely, the Ukrainian military has showcased an ability to “sniff” operational opportunities stemming out of tactical successes. At least three times during the conflict, the Ukrainian forces achieved an operational breakthrough through surprise, the violence of action, and good use of maneuver warfare.  

“Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast may become operationally significant if the Russian command properly exploits these recent tactical successes, which is not a given. Russian advances in western Donetsk Oblast do not automatically portend the collapse of the Ukrainian frontline,” the Institute for the Study of War added. 

Russian Casualties  

Meanwhile, the Russian forces continue to take significant losses on the ground. Over the past twenty-four hours, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces lost approximately 1,480 men killed or wounded. In addition, the Russian forces lost approximately ninety-four tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, seventy-two unmanned aerial systems, twenty infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers, nineteen artillery pieces and multiple launch rocket systems, six main battle tanks, two pieces of special equipment, and one cruise missile damaged or destroyed.  

In total, the Russian forces have lost approximately 735,000 men in over 1,000 days of fighting in Ukraine. The Kremlin’s average daily losses have skyrocketed over the past six months and are currently hovering at around the 1,500 mark, with highs in the range of 2,000 casualties a day. 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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