If so, the leadership has left itself a quarter-century of wiggle room, and thus here’s a second high-confidence prediction. If party chieftains saw a tactical advantage in agreeing to a South China Sea code of conduct, they might agree to such an arrangement—the point being to win a respite from the animosities their domineering conduct has stoked in the region and beyond. But residents of Southeast Asia should take cold comfort in such a gesture should one come. Once upon a time, Beijing went out of its way to allay anxieties roused by its power and ambition. Then it stopped. Its new charm offensive would prove likewise perishable, to be jettisoned once the party felt at liberty to resume its campaign for sovereignty within the nine-dashed line.

In short, China might muffle its territorial claims for a time for the sake of expediency. It will never forswear them.

How’s that coming from a radical skeptic, Philip Tetlock?

About the Author: Dr. James Holmes, U.S. Naval War College 

Dr. James Holmes is J. C. Wylie Chair of Maritime Strategy at the Naval War College and a Faculty Fellow at the University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs. The views voiced here are his alone.

Image Credit: Creative Commons.