Summary and What You Need to Know in 20 Seconds: Australia could consider acquiring Northrop Grumman's B-21 Raider stealth bomber as a "Plan B" amid potential delays in the AUKUS nuclear submarine program, according to some experts in a recent commentary.

-The bomber, expected to enter service with the U.S. Air Force later this decade, could provide Australia with significant long-range strike capabilities sooner than the submarines.

-A recent paper from the Australian Institute for Public Affairs highlights the B-21 as a more cost-effective and timely alternative to the nuclear-powered attack submarines.

-The Raider, currently in low-rate production, could also enhance Australia’s deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region.

B-21 Raider: The Stealth Bomber Solution to Australia’s Defense Delays

Currently, only three nations, the United States, Russia, and China, continue to operate long-range strategic bombers. Even as the future of such aircraft remains unclear, given advances in standoff weapons and hypersonic missiles, a fourth nation could join the mix.

Australian academics have considered concepts for adopting the Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider when it enters service later this decade. The stealth bomber will replace the aging B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit bombers now in service, and operate alongside the United States Air Force's B-52 Stratofortress until that Cold War-era bomber is finally retired by the late 2040s or early 2050s.

While it is impossible to know where aviation technology will be at that point, and the B-21 Raider could be the final U.S. Air Force bomber built, in the short term, it could be just what Canberra needs as the AUKUS submarine program faces likely delays. According to a released paper from the Australian Institute for Public Affairs (IPA), the bomber would be a "Plan B" should the nuclear-powered submarine face hurdles that result in its timeline being pushed back beyond the expected late 2030s or early 2040s.

The paper's authors expressed their opinion that the B-21 could perform many of the same tasks as the nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) being developed as part of the trilateral AUKUS partnership, which includes Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

Plan B-21 – Bombers Instead of Submarines

As the AUKUS submarine is still a decade or two away, Canberra would lease up four Virginia-class SSNs from the United States, but that plan has holes large enough to sink a submarine! The United States is struggling to build and maintain its fleet of submarines, and the program is running years behind schedule.

Recognizing this and other issues, the IPA called for Canberra to consider acquiring the stealth bomber instead.

"Our first policy recommendation is that the government needs an AUKUS Plan B – a strategy which will help to deliver military capability earlier and create a fallback position, in case circumstances mean the nuclear submarines can't or won't be delivered," The Defence of Australia whitepaper suggested.

Northrop Grumman announced earlier this year that the B-21 Raider has entered low rate-initial production (LRIP), and the Raider took its maiden flight last November, while flight testing continues. By contrast, the future submarine that is part of Tier 1 of AUKUS isn't believed to be more than in the early development stage.

The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) could operate the B-21 Raider much sooner than the Royal Australian Navy (RAN) could receive the first submarine, the paper acknowledged.

"The benefit of 'Plan B-21' is that it will deliver significant long-range strike capability to the ADF sooner than nuclear-powered submarines," the IPA added. "We judge that a capacity to operate and maintain the platform in the Indo-Pacific would add a powerful deterrent option, earlier, to the US and Australia."

Though it is expected that just five to six B-21 Raiders will be produced during the LRIP, and that number may not increase significantly, it would still be better than the multiple years each of the five planned AUKUS submarines will take to construct.

Lower Cost Option

In addition to being able to acquire the B-21 Raider sooner than the future SSN, it is expected that the bombers could be far cheaper – as the five nuclear-powered boats could cost hundreds of billions of dollars over the lifetime of the program. Efforts have been underway to keep the costs in check for the Raider, which was also designed with an open systems architecture that would enable rapid future capability integration to keep pace with the highly contested threat environment.

In April, Northrop Grumman suggested that while Australia's acquisition of the B-21 could be "on the table," it was also premature to discuss whether it would come to fruition.

Beyond the bomber, the IPA also called for Australia to maintain close ties with regional partners and allies, and recommended that ANZUS – the treaty between Australia, New Zealand, and the United States – be expanded to include Japan. 

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

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