What You Need to Know: Israel’s recent strike against Iran notably avoided targeting nuclear facilities, focusing instead on damaging Iran’s air defenses and missile systems.

-While Iran downplayed the attack’s impact, U.S. and Israeli officials assert it was more destructive than acknowledged, potentially weakening Iran’s missile response capabilities.

-Analysts suggest Israel’s restraint may stem from a desire to prevent escalation, but Iran’s continued provocations could lead to more aggressive Israeli strikes.

-Citing the Begin Doctrine, which advocates preemptive strikes on nuclear threats, Israel’s past actions against nuclear sites like Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981 suggest a future confrontation with Iran may still be imminent.

Israel’s Recent Strike Damaged Iran’s Defenses – What’s Next?

Israel avoided striking Iran’s nuclear program in last month’s unprecedented retaliatory operation. While Tehran rushed to minimize the downplay of the impact of the strike, U.S. and Israeli officials believe that extensive damage was inflicted on the country’s air defense systems and missile program. “This (attack) was much more damaging than Iranian officials have let on, Iran’s air defenses and some of the radars that are crucial to identifying incoming missiles, it seems that those were destroyed in the first wave,” Nicole Grajewski, a fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, explained.

Following the barrage, U.S. secretary of defense Lloyd Austin asserted that “Iran should not make the mistake of responding to Israel’s strikes, which should mark the end of this exchange.” Israel likely avoided striking Iran’s nuclear facilities for this reason.

The two adversaries have been engaged in a decades-long shadow war avoiding direct confrontation, making the recent flare-up in direct strikes extremely noteworthy. If Tehran continues to escalate its hostile behavior toward the Jewish state vis-à-vis regional proxy groups, however, the next Israeli strike could take a different approach.

Operation Opera

Israel has struck nuclear programs in the past, so the notion of a potential future attack is certainly not out of the question.

In fact, the Jewish state’s Begin Doctrine ensures that a preventative strike carried out to prevent enemies from possessing weapons of mass destruction—including nuclear weapons—pretty much implies this possibility will become a reality down the line.

Since Tehran is inching toward becoming a nuclear threshold state, the likelihood of an Israeli strike on its nuclear program has increased.

Back in 1981, Israeli fighter jets launched a strike targeting Iraq’s Osiris-class nuclear reactor, which it acquired from France a few years earlier. Despite Iraqi claims that the Osirak reactor was intended for peaceful purposes, the Israeli government grew concerned that it could be used to field nuclear weapons.

Following the reactor’s destruction, the Jewish state maintained that it had acted preemptively in order to thwart Iraq from being on the brink of becoming a nuclear-threshold power. However, the United States and other allies characterized the mission as offensive and rebuked it altogether.

If the Israeli Air Force (IAF) were to launch a similar barrage targeting Iran’s facilities, it could be met with the same criticism.

Future strikes targeting Iran?

Tehran fields several facilities related to its nuclear program and many, many more that remain hidden from the public. If the IAF were to launch a full-blown strike targeting Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, Kohndab, Bushehr, and other known sites, Tehran’s nuclear-related progress would undoubtedly be curtailed.

However, Iran likely controls additional facilities hidden underground that perhaps Israel is unaware of.

Even if Israel does not plan on wiping out Iran’s known nuclear-related facilities in the near future, its alleged destruction of Tehran’s air defense systems and missile industry in October’s strike indicates that the Jewish state is laying the groundwork for a future attack.

About the Author: Maya Carlin, Defense Expert

Maya Carlin, National Security Writer with The National Interest, is an analyst with the Center for Security Policy and a former Anna Sobol Levy Fellow at IDC Herzliya in Israel. She has by-lines in many publications, including The National Interest, Jerusalem Post, and Times of Israel. You can follow her on Twitter: @MayaCarlin. 

Image Credit: Creative Commons.