President-elect Donald Trump has essentially declared war on Canada – not one that will (likely) involve a full-blown assault, but rather a trade war that could come from Trump's "Day 1" vow to impose a 25% tariff on all Canadian products. It won't be the first time. During his previous administration, Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, and Ottawa responded with a dollar-for-dollar tariff on the same products bound north. It would likely respond in a similar fashion again if Trump follows through on this tariff threat.

Trump has seemed fixated on Canada, repeatedly taking to social media to describe it as the "51st State," while he has referred to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as "governor." The incoming president has suggested it would be in everyone's best interest for Canada to join the United States, but it wouldn't be so easy.

The Resistance Would Start in America

The biggest pushback might come from the current American states.

As TheInerpreter recently reported, "The 50 current states would consider Canada, [if it] was it to remain a single state, an enormous threat to their own weight within the republic. Canada would be the largest state in terms of population, and second largest economy. Its influence would be massive, and it would fundamentally reshape the balance of power within the country."

The alternative would be for "each of Canada's ten provinces to join the union as separate states. But getting them to submit to a new delineation of powers would be a struggle, ­as Canada has evolved to greater de-centralisation of power."

In the latter scenario, Canada would suddenly bring 20 new Senators, who come from a land with universal healthcare, gun control, and family-paid time off. It is hard not to see the majority of those, ­even some that are "conservatives," ­suddenly aligning with the Democratic Party.

Invasion Canada

Trump has suggested that Canadians would be better off as Americans, but hasn't really presented much of an argument. Yet, if the carrot doesn't work, then the United States could take the stick approach and simply invade Canada. Some of Trump's supporters seem on board.

Fox News host Jesse Watters recently quipped, "The fact that they don't want us to take them over makes me want to invade. I want to quench my imperialist thirst."

Watters may have been joking (or not), but Americans have actually invaded Canada in the past – not once but twice! The first time occurred even before the United States won its independence from Great Britain. It occurred in June 1775 and was aimed at taking the Province of Quebec from the British rule and convincing the Canadiens (the French-speaking locals) to join the Revolution.

The campaign lasted until October 1776 and ended in a British victory. It proved to be a disaster for the Continental Army, yet there remained an objective of the U.S. Congress in conquering Quebec and the other Canadian colonies. The Founding Fathers may have had their own visions of making America great.

The U.S. tried again during the War of 1812, with a similar objective. There were some Americans who sought to expand the size of the nation, but others simply wanted to seize Canada as a bargaining chip to end the conflict with the British. The invasion went well, at least until it didn't.

The Americans won several victories and even captured the city of York, the capital of Upper Canada. After winning the battle, the victorious Americans burned the Legislature building and looted several government buildings – leading the British to later respond by burning Washington, D.C. as payback.
When the British forces seemed on the ropes, the tide turned and they gained the upper hand. With support from their native allies, who had been sitting on the sidelines, the Americans were driven back. The campaign in Lower Canada also didn't end in U.S. victory, and the tide of war turned for the Americans. It marked the last invasion of Canada but wasn't the last time such actions were considered.

Plans to Paper

Though the U.S. and Canada last fought a war more than two centuries ago, on both sides of the border, military planners have come up with invasion plans of the other nation going back to the 19th century.

As recently as the post-World War I era, Canada's General James "Buster" Brown (his real name and no relation to the shoe) was charged with creating an invasion plan of the United States. Brown also conceived of Canada's Defence Scheme No. 1 (DS 1), which was a plan to counter a U.S. invasion.

In 1930, the U.S. also crafted War Plan Red, a detailed study of how the U.S. military could successfully invade Canada. As Politico.com reported in 2018 (when Trump and Trudeau last engaged in a war of words), the plan called for a "three-prong attack by land and sea, starting with a naval blockade of Halifax, sending troop columns from Detroit and Albany to take Toronto and Montreal, from Bellingham to capture Vancouver, and from Boston to capture Halifax, while columns of troops marching from Albany and Vermont, and troops marching from Buffalo take over Niagara Falls, disabling the Canadian power grid."

The fact that the U.S. would devise such a plan less than a century ago isn't surprising, as military thinkers often wargame the unthinkable—­yet War Plan Red did result in a war game that involved 36,000 U.S. personnel taking part just 30 miles from the border.

It was finally declassified in 1974, but it is likely there is some newer plan that has been drawn up.

Invasion 2025?

What would be in an invasion 2025 plan? It would be hard to say, but obviously, the United States military would have a major upper hand were the U.S. to mount an invasion. Few natural boundaries along the border would slow down an attacking force, ­and the U.S. would have a major advantage in terms of the number of aircraft, tanks, and personnel.

For the sake of argument, we would assume NATO sits it out­, as in Article 5 doesn't come into play, ­so it is just the U.S. versus Canada.

The U.S. would have a numerical advantage and could take a cue from Germany's invasion of the Netherlands in 1940­: surrender or see your cities bombed to rumble. The U.S. Navy could quickly blockade any ports, and the U.S. Air Force would certainly have air superiority.

It would lead to a quick victory, but the U.S. might want to hold off on the "Mission Accomplished" banners.

Most of our northern neighbor's population centers, with the exception of Calgary, Charlottetown, Edmonton, Halifax, and St. Johns are within 80 miles of the U.S. border. Canada is also the second largest nation in the world in terms of physical size but has a relatively small population. This would allow the U.S. to quickly overrun Canada's largest cities, but its fighting force could escape further north.

Small But Capable Force

Canada has just a fraction of the military force of the United States, and it has failed to meet its recruiting goals. Its total strength between active duty and reserve sits at only around 100,000 personnel.

Yet, again, the question is how they could use it.

As noted, the U.S. would be unstoppable in rolling into Canada's cities, which could likely be taken without much damage. Canada's military wouldn't like to seek to turn its cities into battlegrounds knowing they would be lost anyway. Instead, as noted, its small elite forces would likely disappear into the wilderness, seeking to fight another day.

Instead of a war like the one Russia is engaged in with Ukraine, with trench lines, artillery duels and sieges, an invasion of Canada would likely resemble the insurgent campaigns the U.S. faced in Afghanistan and Iraq­, but with a populace who looks and speaks (mostly at least) like the invading force.

Unless efforts are made to fortify the border—­literally defeating the whole purpose of taking over Canada in the first place!—­it would be highly likely that Canadian militants would conduct a guerilla campaign throughout the pre-invasion territory of the United States.

This would result in an unwinnable war.

Any effort to crack down on an insurgency would play against efforts to "win hearts and minds," and the U.S. would be forced to maintain a sizeable force to keep the newly occupied Canada in check. At the same time, it would serve to weaken any response the U.S. could mount to another southern border crisis.
Then there is the fact that few American military personnel would want to be on patrol duties on Canada's streets in the dead of winter!

One State or Ten?

Even if Canada were to be assimilated into the United States, the question would be how the territory would be represented—potentially by adding as many as those aforementioned 20 senators!

But the final concern is that there is already an independence movement in Quebec, one that has been gaining momentum for decades. It has been nearly 30 years since the last independence referendum, but there have been calls to hold a third referendum as soon as 2030.