Summary and Key Points: The F-16s Ukraine is getting are likely to be used conservatively, primarily for air defense roles such as shooting down missiles, drones, and enemy aircraft rather than engaging directly with Russian ground forces.

-Due to the threat posed by advanced Russian air defense systems, Ukrainian pilots may avoid using these aircraft in the most dangerous combat zones.

While more F-16s are expected to arrive from NATO countries like Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway, these deliveries will take years. Therefore, the impact of the F-16s on the -conflict may be limited in the short term, contrary to the high expectations set by Ukrainian officials.

The Great F-16 Fighter: Can It Truly Help Ukraine? 

After months of lobbying, Ukraine has finally received their first batch of F-16 fighters, which Zelensky’s government believes are crucial in pushing back against the Russian invasion.

“Ukraine has been pushing its Western allies for F-16s for Ukraine for months,” the AP reported, “saying they were critically needed to fight back against the onslaught of missiles Russia has fired against it.”

The US had been hesitant to supply F-16s to the Ukrainians for fear that gifting fourth-generation fighters would further escalate the war, which is now in year three. But Zelensky, who has proven an effective advocate for his country’s security, has continued to press NATO allies for all variety of weaponry.

Zelensky was in Washington earlier this month, urging lawmakers to “remove all limitations on how Western-provided weapons are used,” the AP reported, “specifically allowing Ukraine to fire Western-provided weapons against an expanded set of Russian targets.”

President Joe Biden relented, authorizing the delivery of the F-16s. Exactly how many F-16s were delivered to Ukraine, and from which NATO member the F-16 was delivered, is not clear; the Ukrainian government hasn’t even confirmed the receipt of the single-engine fighters.

But the F-16s have arrived and will soon see combat above the skies of Ukraine. Whether the F-16s will make a substantial difference in the conflict remains to be seen, but it seems unlikely that the Cold War fighter will offer an immediate panacea for Ukraine’s deficiencies.

Will the F-16 make a difference?

Ukrainian officials have said that Ukraine needs at least 130 F-16 fighters to neutralize Russian air power. While the exact number of F-16s sent to Ukraine is unknown, we can assume its far fewer than 130. According to the Washington Post, Ukraine will have far too few F-16s, which will be quite susceptible to advanced Russian air defense systems, meaning the F-16s will probably be used in a conservative manner – “to shoot down aerial targets such as missiles, drones, and aircraft – rather than strike Russia’s invading ground forces and other military assets near the front.” So, the F-16 will be used to boost Ukraine’s air defense systems, which adds value to the war effort, of course – but the F-16 is not going to offer the paradigm shift in the conflict that Zelensky had advertised.

Ukraine can be expected to treat the gifted F-16s, and the pilots who have recently graduated from an intensive F-16 training program, to be treated preciously, preserved from the most dangerous action. “Official have said that the planes, at least initially, are unlikely to fly too close to the front-line fighting, meaning it is unclear they will even be able to deter attacking enemy aircraft from crossing into Ukraine from Russian airspace,” the Washington Post reported.   

More F-16s are likely on the way; NATO members including Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway have vowed to supply Ukraine with 80 F-16s, but their donations will take years, meaning Ukraine will have to use their existing F-16s sparingly in the meantime.

In sum, don’t expect the much-touted F-16s to make a drastic difference in Ukraine’s resistance.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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