Just three short years ago, Kashmir faced cataclysmic change. In August 2019, the Indian-administered section of the Muslim-majority region had its special status revoked.

The status, inserted in India's constitution in 1949, had granted the disputed province a significant degree of autonomy. As of 2019, the state now consists of two territories intended to be unified with Indian territories, with Ladakh being separately administered.

A total lockdown was imposed on the province on August 5, with the Indian government warning that the violence it had already experienced over the past three decades could reignite if strict measures were not upheld. It is estimated that this decision, already preceded by months of heightened unrest, was responsible for a loss of $2.4 billion to the province’s already lackluster economy.

While Covid-19 slammed the brakes on any economic reforms, the region has now begun to climb back to some degree of normalcy.

The Indian authorities claimed that the move to integrate the regions was targeting pro-Pakistan separatists and radical actors. To some degree, this may have worked, with local media sources claiming that no hartal calls or the previously common stone pelting incidents have been recorded in the unit since the august 2019 overhaul.

It is also suggested that sectarian terrorist attacks, a significant blight on the province, have decreased since August 2019. Indian authorities say that in the 841 days following the abrogation, the number of attacks fell to 496 from the 843 recorded in the preceding 841-day period.

Indian authorities arrested more than 4,000 people following the abrogation of article 370, and many members of Islamist parties, such as the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, were put behind bars. However, the region faces a challenging future with many journalists, peaceful activists, and other civilians caught in the crossfire and widespread mistrust of authority.

While Pakistan, just last month, resumed trade with India after suspending ties in the wake of the 2019 abrogation, it is evident that tensions continue to simmer. This week Pakistan has been accused of violating the ceasefire agreed on the Jammu and Kashmir border.

Yet the province’s present is one of stagnation and state dependence. Unemployment is around one-quarter, well above India’s national average of 7.6 percent. While Indian authorities funnel many grants, subsidies, and loans for long-term projects into the crisis-ridden area, with a near nonexistent private sector, the young generation's immediate fortunes are bleak.

The three consecutive lockdowns inflicted significant damage upon Jammu and Kashmir’s horticulture-heavy economy after the 2019 abrogation. While the Indian state has funneled INR 1350 crores towards economic growth, this has made only a small dent in the region’s deep-rooted financial woes. However, the history-filled region’s tourism industry is rebounding toward pre-pandemic levels.

Drug abuse is also surging among young Kashmiris, especially those with pre-existing mental health conditions. 90 percent of drug users are between seventeen and thirty-three years old, and between ten and fifteen users, mostly opioids, are admitted to the hospital daily.

As it stands, Kashmir faces a toxic cocktail of long-term troubles, with no obvious pathway toward stability on the horizon. However, with new assembly elections scheduled for next Spring, further upheaval could soon be on the cards.

Georgia Leatherdale-Gilholy is an associate writer for Foundation for Uyghur Freedom and a Young Voices contributor.

Image: Reuters.