Ukraine’s Kursk offensive is a few weeks old, but the media narrative has largely coalesced around two aspects of this unprecedented operation: the boost to Ukrainian morale and the humiliation of Vladimir Putin. While both of these are salutary developments for Ukraine, they are likely to be ephemeral. Ukrainian soldiers and civilians are understandably heartened to see their forces fighting on the enemy’s land, but embarrassment is nothing new for Putin and the Russian Armed Forces. Indeed, the war in Ukraine is largely a story of Russian humiliation, starting with the initial repulse of a Russian invasion that was predicted to be a week-long walkover. 

The most important impacts of Kursk may be far longer-lasting, with the potential to alter the course of this stalemated war. Foremost among them are: the demonstration of the limits of Russian escalation, the proof of concept of a large-scale strategic raid, and the operation’s undeniable surprise and operational security. 

Since the war began, Western nations have been essential but cautious partners of Ukraine. Russia’s considerable conventional military might, and its enormous nuclear arsenal, have limited the speed and scale of Western support to Ukraine. Russia proves feckless in light of Ukrainian advancements and it seems that going forward the Western partners are taking note. At the time of writing, British prime minister Keir Starmer and U.S. president Joe Biden have discussed letting Ukraine fire long-range, Western-supplied missiles into Russia. 

Putin’s impotent response to the Kursk offensive can only increase their confidence in providing Ukraine with the deep-strike weapons it craves. 

With the limited opportunities for Ukraine to fully demonstrate the strategic advances in its maneuver abilities, gleaned from NATO training and honed by its own experiences, the Kursk operation allows Ukraine to showcase its growing offensive capabilities. After the failure of the 2023 counter-offensive to make significant territorial advances, Kursk demonstrates that Ukrainian forces are making tangible progress in the difficult skill of combined arms maneuver warfare. 

At least five Ukrainian brigades successfully coordinated a breach and penetration of unfamiliar enemy terrain—an unprecedented accomplishment for a young, rapidly expanding army still experiencing endemic if unavoidable growing pains. Kursk was thus a proof of concept for a new Ukrainian ability to conduct strategic raids. Ukraine has a choice to make: try to hold its new Russian possessions as a bargaining chip or withdraw and prepare to use its newfound raiding capability again. 

The Choice is…

Ukraine’s ability to pull off a massive multi-brigade surprise attack with both friends and foes none the wiser is also unprecedented. When compared to the far more limited Belgorod incursion of 2023, the level of secrecy surrounding the attack was night and day. In a war of ceaseless social media and ubiquitous cell phones, pulling off a military operation of this size with complete surprise is an industrial-age level of operational security. This may be the most impressive facet of the entire Kursk offensive. If Ukraine can repeat this feat, it will add an enormous and unexpected new dimension to its operations.  

Despite its immediate success, analysts of the war are wrestling over the wisdom of the Kursk attack. The impact on the morale of Ukrainians and Russians will dissipate, and the offensive’s ultimate tactical outcome is still to be determined. But this operation has shown the world that this isn’t last year’s Ukrainian Armed Forces. Unintimidated by Russia, able to plan and execute large-scale offensive operations, and capable of tremendous operational security, Ukraine has more military options going forward.  

About the Author 

David Plaster, a resident of Ukraine for the last 13 years, is the founder of Anomaly NGO, a Ukraine-based non-profit, and a former U.S. Army combat medic. 

Image Credit: Creative Commons and/or Shutterstock.