Summary and Key Points: The Russian military has experienced significant casualties in Ukraine, with over 70,000 losses in the past two months alone. According to British Military Intelligence, Russia's daily casualties reached conflict highs in May and June, averaging over 1,200 killed and wounded per day.

-Despite these heavy losses, the Kremlin continues its offensive operations across the contact line. The Russian strategy appears to focus on a war of attrition, sacrificing large numbers of ill-trained troops in hopes of overwhelming Ukrainian defenses.

-The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense estimates Russia has lost more than 550,000 men since the conflict began in February 2022, with potential losses exceeding 700,000 by year's end if current rates persist. President Putin is betting on Western war fatigue to force Ukraine into negotiations.

The Cost of Conflict: Russia's Daily Casualties Exceed 1,000 in Ukraine

The Russian military continues to take very heavy casualties in Ukraine. The previous two months were some of the deadliest in the war for the Russian forces. And yet, the Kremlin isn’t taking the foot off the gas.

Meat Grinder

 “The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine throughout May and June 2024, increased to conflict highs of 1,262 and 1,163 respectively,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest estimate of the war.

The total Russian military losses during these two months are in excess of 70,000 men, with around 40,000 casualties in May and the rest in June.

And yet, the Russian command continues to be on the offense and launch daily attacks along most of the contact line.

“The uptick in losses reflects Russia’s opening of the new front in the Kharkiv region, while maintaining the same rate of offensive operations along the reminder of the front,” the British Military Intelligence added.

“Although this new approach has increased the pressure on the frontline, an effective Ukrainian defense and a lack of Russian training reduces Russia’s ability to exploit any tactical successes, despite attempting to stretch the frontline further,” the British Military Intelligence added.

Moscow has clearly chosen to fight a war of attrition, seeing that it doesn’t have the requisite combat capabilities and resources for maneuver warfare that could lead in an operational breakthrough. Indeed, a quick operational breakthrough like those the Ukrainians achieved in eastern and southern Ukraine in the fall of 2022 are much harder now that the frontlines have cemented.

Russia’s remarkable ability to generate forces and replenish its heavy casualties is a double edge sword: finding over 1,000 reinforcements every day isn’t an easy job, so the Russian military turns to ill-trained mercenaries, reservists, and pressed troops. Although these men are enough to maintain an offensive posture across the contact line, they are also an inadequate force to fight a fast-paced modern conflict. Moscow has men enough to power the meat grinder, but their quality is so low that they can do little but that.

“Russia’s casualty rate will likely continue to average above 1,000 a day over the next two months as Russia continues to try to overmatch Ukrainian positions with mass,” the British Military Intelligence concluded.

All in all, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense estimates that the Kremlin has lost more than 550,000 men since February 24, 2022. The Ukrainian figures are corroborated to a very large extent by Western intelligence estimates. If the current rate of over 1,000 losses a day persists beyond the summer, it is very likely that the Kremlin will close the year with over 700,000 losses on its back.

The war has still a long way to go. The Kremlin is playing the long game, sacrificing hundreds of thousands of men in exchange for time. An experienced political operator, Russian President Vladimir Putin bets on war fatigue in the West that will force the Ukrainian government to negotiate.

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense and national security journalist specializing in special operations. A Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ), he holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University, an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). He is pursuing a J.D. at Boston College Law School. His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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