Summary and Top Line Points: The U.S. Navy's Columbia-class submarines are set to replace the aging Ohio-class submarines, with the lead ship, USS Columbia (SSBN-826), expected to be delivered by 2027 and commissioned by 2030.

-The program faces numerous challenges, including cost overruns and delays, attributed to complex designs and America's struggling shipyard capabilities.

-The Columbia-class, with a $132 billion program cost, aims to build 12 submarines to replace 14 Ohio-class subs by the mid-2040s. Critics argue this approach is impractical, costly, and insufficient given current strategic threats, calling for radical changes in the defense industrial base.

Why the Navy's Columbia-Class Submarines Face Uncertain Future

The US Navy is building a new class of ballistic missile submarines that are meant to replace the aging Ohio-class submarines. This new class of boat, the Columbia-class is a top priority for the Navy. That’s because there have been multiple problems getting these new boats going—notably due to complications caused by America’s failing shipyard capabilities. 

The USS Columbia (SSBN-826) is the lead ship of the Columbia-class. It is currently under construction and is scheduled to be delivered to the Navy by 2027. From there, the Navy is expected to commission this new boat by 2030. 

Meanwhile, America’s critical submarine force is strained to its breaking point and needs every system it can get in the field immediately. That’s because the global threat environment is more dynamic and disfavoring of America’s current strategic position than at any time since the Interwar Years.

It is believed that the Columbia-class submarines will fully replace the Ohio-class subs by the mid-2040s, beginning with the first replacements occurring in 2031. That seems wildly impractical and stunningly long-range, considering the immediacy of the threats the military is facing. 

Cost Overruns

This program is expected to cost around $132 billion, with each Columbia-class submarine expected to run in at around $15 billion. 

Speaking of costs, there have been numerous overruns associated with the Columbia program. The Navy has attributed these overruns to various factors, including the complexity of the design, the need for new technologies, and the challenges of building the first boat of a new class. 

That, of course, is a convenient excuse papering over the fact that the US defense industrial base is so sclerotic and broken that it cannot even keep up with regular peacetime demands of maintaining the existing submarine force, let alone creating an entirely new class of submarines in a wartime environment. 

Something must change. 

And the solution won’t be found in building more expensive, more complex, and harder to maintain systems, like the Columbia-class. The solution must come in the form of radical changes to the defense industrial base and how America produces its warships, for example.

The Plan

Right now, the Navy intends to build a total of 12 Columbia-class submarines to replace the 14 Ohio-class submarines currently serving in the fleet. Whatever one may think of the star-spangled awesome new technologies incorporated into the Columbia-class submarine, one cannot help but to notice that, on top of taking an incredibly protracted period of time to replace the Ohio-class, the American taxpayers are paying more for less. 

There will be, after all, two fewer Columbia-class submarines than there are Ohio-class submarines.

Considering how most experts do not think that the Navy has enough of its existing submarines, now the Pentagon wants to retire an entire class of nuclear-powered, ballistic missile submarines and replace them with even fewer, newer warships? I understand that quality can often trump quantity. 

But honestly, Mao was right: quantity has a quality all of its own. This is a concept that China has long understood. It’s why, despite not having as comprehensively as advanced of a military as the Americans possess, it really doesn’t matter. Their forces can trust swarm American systems and destroy the more complex American systems that way.

A Columbia-class submarine is designed to have a crew of approximately 150 sailors, which is similar to the crew size of the Ohio-class submarines.

Her armaments include the Trident II D5 ballistic missiles, which are capable of carrying multiple nuclear warheads.

A Columbia-class submarine has a range that will likely be similar to the Ohio-class, so around 7,000 nautical miles (just over 8,000 miles). But the submarine, like all of America’s submarines, will be nuclear-powered. In other words, its range will be virtually unlimited.

It remains to be seen, though, if the Navy will even be able to deliver on the promises of the Columbia-class submarine. And many are asking why the Navy simply isn’t focused on maintaining and expanding their existing arsenal of submarines, rather than wasting time and money (that we don’t have) on reinventing the wheel. 

Author Experience and Expertise: Brandon J. Weichert

Brandon J. Weichert, a National Interest national security analyst, is a former Congressional staffer and geopolitical analyst who is a contributor at The Washington Times, the Asia Times, and The-Pipeline. He is the author of Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower, Biohacked: China’s Race to Control Life, and The Shadow War: Iran’s Quest for Supremacy. His next book, A Disaster of Our Own Making: How the West Lost Ukraine, is due October 22 from Encounter Books. Weichert can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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