Will the Next Generation Air Dominance program, or NGAD, produce the last stealth fighter that the U.S. Air Force ever builds? 

The fighter jet in general may soon be outdated, given recent advances in drone technology and artificial intelligence. It’s hard to say exactly when the moment will arrive that renders fighter jets obsolete and prompts the Air Force to cancel all future development programs. Could the moment arrive after the NGAD enters service, but before its replacement is developed? It is possible. The NGAD will likely have a multi-decade service life, leaving a large window open for this hypothetical to become a reality. 

Reduced Technology Tempo

Military technology improved rapidly during the 20th century. Consider the airplane. Improvements came fast in the first few decades following the introduction of the technology, from the Wright Flyer to the Sopwith Camel, to the Submarine Spitfire, to the F-86 Sabre, to the F-4 Phantom. The SR-71 and X-15 were in the air just a handful of decades after the Wright brothers figured out the basics of flight.

Innovation and improvement have continued in more recent decades, but the pace has plateaued. Many aircraft developed in the 1970s, like the F-15 and F-16, are still relevant today, albeit with updated avionics. The fifth generation of fighter jets debuted with the F-22 Raptor in the 1990s, and it won’t be supplanted by sixth-generation technology for another decade or so. This means the gap between the fifth and sixth generations will span some forty years. That is quite a long time, considering that aviation technology progressed from the Wright Flyer to the P-51 Mustang in a similar span.  

If innovation in aviation continues to slow, the gap between the sixth-generation NGAD and a seventh-generation fighter could be greater than half a century. Will the Air Force want or need a seventh-generation fighter in the year 2100? It’s certainly possible that the answer is no. 

Some pundits have suggested that the age of the fighter pilot is over. The Air Force has a full lineup of remotely piloted aircraft, and it is even experimenting with remotely piloting traditional fighters like the F-16. The NGAD itself is expected to feature an unmanned option. So by 2100, it is possible the fighter pilot is an extinct breed. This wouldn’t negate the possibility of needing a seventh-generation fighter, of course, but it does reduce the likelihood, as the pilot-operator is a central tenet of what we understand to be a modern airplane. Removing the need for a pilot-operator could free designers to branch out in different directions, resulting in something entirely different from a modern airplane. 

Or perhaps air defenses will advance to the point that fighter jets are so vulnerable they are deemed not worth the investment. 

Either way, expect the NGAD to be the last Air Force fighter for the next few decades.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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