What You Need to Know: As the war in Ukraine nears its 1,000th day, Russian officials have escalated nuclear threats against the U.S., Ukraine, and the West. In September, President Vladimir Putin announced a lowered nuclear threshold, stating Russia would use nuclear weapons if attacked by a non-nuclear state supported by a nuclear power—a clear reference to Ukraine receiving long-range munitions from the West.

-Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov echoed this warning at the UN General Assembly.

-Despite Ukraine's requests for weapons like ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to target key Russian military sites, the U.S. and NATO have hesitated due to these nuclear threats. Russia's vast nuclear arsenal, the largest globally with approximately 5,800 warheads, underscores the gravity of the situation.

Russia Lowers Nuclear Threshold: Implications for the Ukraine War

With the war in Ukraine nearing its 1,000 day, Russian officials continue to threaten the United States, Ukraine, and the West with nuclear warfare.  

In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced changes to his country’s nuclear arms threshold. According to the new doctrine, the Russian military would use nuclear weapons if a non-nuclear power attacked Russia with the participation or support of a nuclear power. Any such instances, Putin stated, would be seen as a, “joint attack on the Russian Federation.” 

The changes refer to Ukraine’s request to use long-range munitions provided by the United States and NATO against targets within Russia. 

Nuclear Threats  

A couple of days after Putin’s announcement, Russia’s top diplomat reiterated the lowering of the nuclear threshold. 

“I’m not going to talk here about the senselessness and the danger of the very idea of trying to fight to victory with a nuclear power, which is what Russia is,” Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said to the United Nations General Assembly.  

“Whether or not they will provide the permission for Ukraine for long-range weapons, then we will see what their understanding was of what they heard,” Lavrov added during a news conference.  

Ukraine has been lobbying for the green light to use MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), Storm Shadow cruise missile, SCALP-EG cruise missiles, and other long-range munitions provided by the West against high-value military targets inside Russia. And it has a very good argument. A quick assessment pinpoints hundreds of important military and logistical targets within the range of Ukraine that are key to the Russian military’s ability to wage war in Ukraine. 

However, as the Kremlin’s threats became more pronounced, the U.S. and NATO refrained from giving their much-requested permission. And this isn’t the first time Putin or the Kremlin has threatened nuclear war against the West.  

“Putin implicitly threatened to use nuclear weapons if the West enables Ukraine to decisively defeat Russia to undermine the international community's cohering strategic vision of support for Ukraine,” the Institute for the Study of War assessed in an update on the war in Ukraine.  

The U.S. Intelligence Community has also assessed the threat of a Russian nuclear strike to be likely enough to work on contingency plans.  

Russia’s Massive Nuclear Arsenal  

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, with the U.S. following closely behind. China has also been investing heavily in its nuclear arsenal in a clear attempt to achieve nuclear parity with other near-peer countries. Other nuclear powers include the United Kingdom, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.  

Specifically, the Russian military has approximately 5,800 nuclear warheads of different sizes and yields, while the U.S. has around 5,050. To operate its vast ground-launched nuclear arsenal, the Russian military has a separate service, the Strategic Rocket Forces. The Russian Navy also has eleven ballistic missile submarines that can fire ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Finally, the Russian Air Force has the Tu-160 Blackjack and Tu-95MS Bear long-range strategic bombers that can carry nuclear munitions. 

About the Author

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from the Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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