Russia Can't Keep Losing What Looks Like Unlimited Soldiers in Ukraine Forever
The Russian military is making slow but gradual progress on the ground in Ukraine. However, its whole strategy hinges on the ability to put many men on the ground, knowing that most of them will die or get maimed.
The Russian military is making slow but gradual progress on the ground in Ukraine. However, its whole strategy hinges on the ability to put many men on the ground, knowing that most of them will die or get maimed.
A Tour of the Battlefield in Ukraine
Currently, there are five open fronts in the war, four from Russia and one from Ukraine pushing into the Kursk Oblast of Russia.
Specifically, the Russian military is conducting offensive operations across four sectors: the central Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast, the northeast Donbas, and southern Ukraine. The Russian forces are using mass assaults in an attempt to capture strategic points on the contact line that would ease their progress. The Russian military has shown that it can’t fight maneuver warfare and achieve a quick operational breakthrough.
So, it has chosen instead a strategy of “death by a thousand cuts.” But this strategy is very costly indeed.
Russian Casualties
Supporting large-scale offensive operations along four sectors doesn’t come cheap, as the Kremlin has come to realize.
Over the past twenty-four hours, the Russian military, mercenary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces took approximately 1,360 casualties, killed or wounded. In addition, the Russian forces lost approximately eighty-nine tactical vehicles and fuel trucks, seventy-two unmanned aerial systems, forty-six artillery pieces, multiple launch rocket systems, ten pieces of special equipment, nine infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, and nine main battle tanks damaged or destroyed.
The daily rate of casualties is only going up for the Russian military and it remains a question for how long Moscow will be able to sustain such a high level of attrition. Currently, the Russian forces are losing on average more than 1,300 men every day.
One would need to go back to July to find a day in which the Russian forces suffered less than 1,000 casualties a day. Overall, the Russian forces have lost almost 700,000 men in about 980 days of fighting. That is about 715 casualties every single day.
Interestingly, the Kremlin is mainly responsible for the high casualty numbers. That is, the Russian military is intentionally pursuing a high attrition strategy because it can. Unlike the Ukrainians, who are struggling to put enough men on the frontlines and have to increasingly rely on middle-aged men to do the fighting, the Kremlin is less restricted, drawing men from the vast pool of Russia’s population.
But, in addition to Russian citizens, the Kremlin has been using creative methods to put troops on the frontline. Tens of thousands of convicted criminals have fought in the war as mercenaries for private military companies like the infamous Wagner Group. Moreover, Moscow pays hefty bonuses to non-Russians from across the world, including Africa, the former Soviet Republics, and even Cuba. And more recently, the Russian military is using North Korean troops to bolster its numbers.
The Kremlin suffers high casualties because it can and because it means that its Ukrainian adversary is losing many troops in the process. For the time being, Moscow has found a way to replenish the high level of attrition with creative measures and without upsetting Russian society too much. But the main question is, for how long can Moscow sustain this high-attrition strategy without breaking from within?
About the Author
Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.
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