Summary and Key Points: Russia's military tank reserves, which have been significantly depleted since the start of the Ukraine war, might be running out.

-Despite having hoarded military equipment since the Cold War, reports suggest that the Kremlin's stockpiles are diminishing faster than they can be replenished. Satellite imagery analysis and recent reports indicate a substantial reduction in Russia's tank numbers, with older models like the T-62 and T-54/55 being reactivated to compensate for losses.

-With production rates lagging behind losses, it appears increasingly unlikely that Russia will be able to restore its tank fleet to pre-war levels anytime soon.

Is Russia Going to Run Out of Tanks?

Russia is a vast nation, but its resources aren't infinite. The Kremlin essentially "hoarded" military equipment since the Cold War, but there are now reports that the Russian military could be running low on tanks – something that might have seemed unimaginable before Moscow launched its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine nearly two and a half years ago.

David Axe wrote for Forbes.com in April that while Russia was fully mobilized "politically, industrially and militarily" – its mobilization has depleted resources faster than the Kremlin has been able to replenish its stockpiles.

Newsweek, citing the German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ), also reported that Russia may have thousands fewer armored fighting vehicles including tanks than it did before the war. SZ had trained an AI model to carefully examine satellite imagery from 87 military sites in Russia, which included 16 bases that housed tanks, artillery systems, and other vehicles. The AI was able to count the number of tanks prior to the war and compared them over the past 52 months and the data suggested that the Kremlin had lost significant numbers of tanks.

One depot had reportedly housed 857 tanks in April 2021, but by October 2022 saw its number of tanks fall by half –while it is now nearly empty.

Indeed, Ukraine has also lost a significant number of tanks and other vehicles, but Western support has helped Kyiv grow stronger while Russia may continue to weaken. In addition, NATO has steadily beefed up its military due to Russian aggression, and the war that spurred that military build up has resulted in a greatly weakened Russia.

Those Old Vehicles Can't Be Replaced for Ukraine War

Kyiv has claimed that as of the end of last month, Moscow had lost more than 8,000 tanks – although that number can't be independently verified. Yet, what is absolutely true is that Russia can, at least in time, replace the lost T-90s and other modern vehicles.

Time isn't on Russia's side right now, of course, but the other fact is that the Kremlin may never be able to build up its massive tank fleet to pre-war numbers. As noted, the Kremlin had a policy of sending older tanks to storage – which on paper at least bolstered the number of tanks that Moscow had in its arsenals.

To replenish its forces as modern tanks were destroyed, older platforms including the T-62 and even older T-54/55 series tanks were recalled from storage and sent to the front lines. As those tanks have been lost, they'll never again return to the storage depots. Moreover, Russia isn't producing tanks on the scale that the Soviet Union had during the Cold War.

The T-54/55 was the most produced tank of all time – with the Soviet Union manufacturing more than 35,000 in total. While obviously not all were preserved, Russia still inherited at least 3,000 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. By comparison, only around 4,000 T-90 main battle tanks (MBTs) have been produced in total for the Russian military.

In other words, Russia had a massive tank reserve prior to the war thanks to those Cold War vehicles it maintained, but the reserves have been tapped into and won't likely be replenished for decades to come – if ever. Everything runs out eventually, even Russian tanks.

Author Experience and Expertise: Peter Suciu

Peter Suciu is a Michigan-based writer. He has contributed to more than four dozen magazines, newspapers, and websites with over 3,200 published pieces over a twenty-year career in journalism. He regularly writes about military hardware, firearms history, cybersecurity, politics, and international affairs. Peter is also a Contributing Writer for Forbes and Clearance Jobs. You can follow him on Twitter: @PeterSuciu. You can email the author: [email protected].

All images are Creative Commons or Shutterstock. 

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