Summary and Key Points: The war in Ukraine remains brutal, with both sides enduring heavy losses. Russia is pushing hard in the Donbas, aiming to capture Pokrovsk and disrupt Ukrainian logistical lines.

-In response, Ukraine launched an ambitious offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast, capturing settlements in an attempt to force Moscow to divert forces.

-Despite Ukraine's efforts, Russia has maintained pressure in both Kursk and Donbas.

-Russian daily casualties in August reached over 1,100, with more than 610,000 total losses since the invasion began in 2022. British intelligence estimates that Russia could lose up to 700,000 men by the end of 2024.

Ukraine Invades Russia’s Kursk Oblast: A Bold Strategy to Defend Donbas

The war in Ukraine slogs, and both sides are trying to wrestle the operational advantage and use it to achieve their operational goals.

The Russian military is pushing very hard in the Donbas, particularly in the direction of Pokrovsk. If the city falls, the Ukrainian logistical lines in the region will suffer, and it will be harder for Kyiv to maintain the contact line.

In August, the Ukrainian military launched a highly ambitious offensive into the Kursk Oblast, Russia, to counter the Russian pressure. The Ukrainian forces have captured scores of settlements. This is the first time the Ukrainians have invaded Russia and held land since the start of the war.

Although the Ukrainian military leadership is diverting important mechanized brigades to support its foray into Russia, Kyiv’s objective is to force Moscow to blink and pull forces from the contact line in Ukraine. In a way, the Ukrainian military is trying to defend Pokrovsk through offensive defense.

However, the Russian military has only diverted forces from other, quieter parts of the contact line. Thus far, the Kremlin has managed to maintain pressure both in the direction of Pokrovsk and contain the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk Oblast.

In the background of all of this fighting, both sides have been taking heavy losses.

Russian Losses in the Ukraine War 

As a rule, the Russian military has been taking substantially more losses than its Ukrainian adversary. This is mainly due to Russia being the aggressor—attackers typically take more casualties than defenders—but also because the Russian military leadership doesn’t care about its troops. At least not in the way the Ukrainians do. Kyiv has been cautious about not sacrificing its future by decimating its young male population.

“The average daily Russian casualties (killed and wounded) in Ukraine has increased in August 2024 to 1,187 per day, according to Ukrainian General Staff reporting,” the British Military Intelligence assessed in its latest operational estimate on the war.

Since the start of the large-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russian military, paramilitary units, and pro-Russian separatist forces have taken more than 610,000 casualties, and of course, estimates vary. In comparison, the initial invasion force numbered around 200,000 men.

However, many experts argue Kyiv’s casualty numbers have been entirely accurate, with Western intelligence estimates corroborating the figures in regular assessments.

“The August 2024 increase in casualty rate is almost certainly due to Ukraine’s Kursk operation and continued pressure on the Pokrovsk axis. Russia continues to rely on mass to mitigate its lack of personnel and equipment capability,” the British Military Intelligence added.

Russian commanders have shown a brutal preference for human wave attacks reminiscent of World War One. Understanding that their troops—and them—lack the requisite combined arms and tactical training to be more effective on the offense, Russian commanders have resorted to mindless attacks.

“Although Russian pressure on the whole frontline will continue over the next month, their capability constraints will likely continue to reduce their ability to exploit any tactical successes into wider operational gains,” the British Military Intelligence stated.

Moreover, Russian forces will likely continue to take over 1,000 casualties a day in September. At this rate, Moscow could end up losing 700,000 men before the end of the year.

About the Author 

Stavros Atlamazoglou is a seasoned defense journalist specializing in special operations and a Hellenic Army veteran (national service with the 575th Marine Battalion and Army HQ). He holds a BA from Johns Hopkins University and an MA from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). His work has been featured in Business Insider, Sandboxx, and SOFREP.

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