Summary: Russia's inability to secure air superiority over Ukraine has significantly hindered its military operations, with the airspace remaining contested. The Ukrainian anti-air forces have notably targeted the Russian Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bombers, claiming to have downed 13 Russian aircraft in February alone, including ten Su-34s. These losses are significant for Russia, as the Su-34 plays a crucial role in supporting ground operations, especially during Moscow's winter offensive. The jet's capability to deliver precision strikes from a distance has been pivotal. However, sustaining such losses, particularly of a model as versatile and crucial as the Su-34, poses a substantial challenge for Russia.

Ukraine's Anti-Air Forces Deal Heavy Blow to Russian Su-34 Fleet

Russia’s failure to secure the air space over Ukraine was an early setback that continues to hamper Putin’s invasion efforts. With the air space over the conflict remaining contested, Russian troops and equipment have not been able to move as freely, while simultaneously, Russian aircraft have struggled to survive.

Most notably, the Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber has proven ill-suited for the conflict; in the February alone, Ukrainian anti-air crews claim to have shot down 13 Russian aircraft in just 13 days – ten of which were Su-34s.

The Ukrainians took to X to boast their anti-air successes: “It seems like being a Russian military plane pilot is the worst job in the world. February is the shortest month of the year, but our sky defenders have achieved the greatest results in downing Russian jets since October 2022.” According to Kyiv, the February kill count included the ten Su-34s plus two Su-35 fighters and one A-50 long-range radar detection and control aircraft.

Kyiv may have inflated their kill count for the sake of propaganda. But neutral reports do indicate that Russia is losing aircraft at an unsustainable rate. The heavy losses of the Su-34 is especially concerning for Putin, given the jets versatility and importance to the winter offensive.

The Su-34 over Ukraine

 “Russia’s Su-34s have been playing a key role in supporting Moscow’s winter offensive on the eastern front,” Newsweek reported. “Air dropped KAB glide bombs have been credited as svital to Russian success in and around the small city Avdiika.” As Ukraine lacks the air-defense abilities to prevent the Russian sorties from happening, the Su-34s can release their weapons from as far away as 25 miles, offering an enviable advantage.

Accordingly, the Su-34 is vital to Putin’s aims – which makes the heavy losses particularly harmful to Russian objectives. To avoid the ongoing losses, Russia will need to make changes. Most urgently, Russia will need to target the systems that are contributing to the Su-34 losses, like radar and surface-to-air missiles.

Of course, targeting and destroying radar installations, or mobile surface-to-air systems, is easier said than done – especially when said systems can strike back.

Another option would be for the Russians to increase the production tempo of their Su-34s. But Russia’s military output is not as efficient or robust as the United States; keeping Russian forces supplied with new Su-34s fresh off the production line is, again, easier said than done.

“Russia’s air force has acquired a total of 140 Su-34 fighter-bombers,” Newsweek reported. And “as of Friday, Ukraine claims to have downed 35 of them.” Oryx, an open-source intelligence tracker, suggests Ukraine has only shot down 25 Su-34s – but that’s still a substantial percentage of the overall Su-34 stock.

Regardless, Russia has roughly one hundred Su-34s. Can they all fly? Probably not. Many of the remaining one hundred Su-34s may be out of service, suffering from a backlog of maintenance issues – a plausible scenario given the taxing nature of the Russo-Ukraine War. Similarly, the Russians may have the jets to fly but not the pilots to fly the jets.

“The impact of losing 13 aircraft in almost as many days, and possibly some of their highly trained pilots, is not negligible for the Russian military,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote.

About the Author: Harrison Kass 

Harrison Kass is a defense and national security writer with over 1,000 total pieces on issues involving global affairs. An attorney, pilot, guitarist, and minor pro hockey player, Harrison joined the US Air Force as a Pilot Trainee but was medically discharged. Harrison holds a BA from Lake Forest College, a JD from the University of Oregon, and an MA from New York University. Harrison listens to Dokken.

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